Closing spread
CHI -7.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.176EPA / play+0.076
- 35.2%Success rate45.7%
- -0.212EPA / dropback+0.122
- -0.115EPA / rush+0.007
- 6.1%Explosive rate10.1%
- -5.66CPOE-3.48
- 33.8%Third-down rate42.0%
- 48.2%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 1.18Points / drive2.32
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. CHI are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 18/35 | 177 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 12 | 21 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Bond | 2 | 4 | 89 | 0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 7 | 14 | 48 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Gage Larvadain | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 3 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 17/28 | 242 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 18 | 98 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Kyle Monangai | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Colston Loveland | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III | 6 | 7 | 84 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 5 | 69 | 2 |
| Colston Loveland | 4 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.81