2025 · Week 15

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Shedeur Sanders

3·31

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 8°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CHI -7.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBears
  • -0.176EPA / play+0.076
  • 35.2%Success rate45.7%
  • -0.212EPA / dropback+0.122
  • -0.115EPA / rush+0.007
  • 6.1%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -5.66CPOE-3.48
  • 33.8%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 48.2%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 1.18Points / drive2.32
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.6 points. CHI are 5-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15CHI @ CLE17–20CLE
2021 · W3CHI @ CLE6–26CLE
2017 · W16CLE @ CHI3–20CHI
2013 · W15CHI @ CLE38–31CHI
2009 · W8CLE @ CHI6–30CHI
2005 · W5CHI @ CLE10–20CLE
2001 · W8CLE @ CHI21–27CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:4837Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:18637Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 7:35314Punt0–7
CHIQ1 5:54780Touchdown0–14
CLEQ1 1:2931Punt0–14
CHIQ2 14:091470Missed field goal0–14
CLEQ2 4:41635Punt0–14
CHIQ2 1:5239Punt0–14
CLEQ2 1:1030Punt0–14
CHIQ2 0:40548End of half0–14
CLEQ3 15:0030Punt0–14
CHIQ3 14:0341Turnover on downs0–14
CLEQ3 12:13516Field goal3–14
CHIQ3 10:0338Punt3–14
CLEQ3 8:5310Turnover3–20
CHIQ3 8:46122Touchdown3–21
CLEQ3 8:39549Turnover3–21
CHIQ3 5:471075Touchdown3–28
CLEQ3 0:463-9Punt3–28
CHIQ4 14:4963Punt3–28
CLEQ4 11:50521Turnover3–28
CHIQ4 8:5533Field goal3–31
CLEQ4 7:301658Turnover on downs3–31
CHIQ4 0:1000End of half3–31

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shedeur Sanders18/3517703

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shedeur Sanders22412.00
Quinshon Judkins12211.80
Trayveon Williams133.00
Harold Fannin Jr.122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah Bond24890
Harold Fannin Jr.714480
Jerry Jeudy24220
Malachi Corley11100
Gage Larvadain1280
Trayveon Williams2240
Quinshon Judkins34-40

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams17/2824220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift18985.42
Kyle Monangai11333.00
Caleb Williams3134.30
Colston Loveland1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Luther Burden III67840
DJ Moore45692
Colston Loveland45630
Cole Kmet24280
Olamide Zaccheaus0300
Kyle Monangai0200
D'Andre Swift11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.81