2013 · Week 15

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

38·31

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jason Campbell

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 25°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CLE -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.077EPA / play-0.075
  • 45.2%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback-0.074
  • -0.072EPA / rush-0.076
  • 9.9%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +4.85CPOE-3.79
  • 42.7%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.95Points / drive1.27
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.6 points. CLE are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CLE @ CHI3–31CHI
2023 · W15CHI @ CLE17–20CLE
2021 · W3CHI @ CLE6–26CLE
2017 · W16CLE @ CHI3–20CHI
2009 · W8CLE @ CHI6–30CHI
2005 · W5CHI @ CLE10–20CLE
2001 · W8CLE @ CHI21–27CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–CLE
CHIQ1 15:00659Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 10:37656Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 7:261475Field goal3–3
CLEQ2 12:5558Turnover3–3
CHIQ2 10:5030Punt3–3
CLEQ2 10:2839Punt3–3
CHIQ2 8:562-2Opp touchdown3–10
CHIQ2 8:01527Punt3–10
CLEQ2 4:49735Punt3–10
CHIQ2 1:29466Touchdown10–10
CLEQ2 0:24331End of half10–10
CLEQ3 15:00213Opp touchdown17–10
CLEQ3 13:481085Touchdown17–17
CHIQ3 8:20936Opp touchdown17–24
CHIQ3 3:4036Punt17–24
CLEQ3 1:55936Punt17–24
CHIQ4 13:32860Touchdown24–24
CLEQ4 10:5931Punt24–24
CHIQ4 9:09636Touchdown31–24
CLEQ4 5:41512Punt31–24
CHIQ4 4:12578Touchdown38–24
CLEQ4 2:17580Touchdown38–31
CHIQ4 0:5900End of half38–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler22/3126532

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte241275.30
Michael Bush34414.71
Jay Cutler3113.70
Alshon Jeffery1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall612951
Alshon Jeffery56721
Martellus Bennett66710
Earl Bennett44231
Matt Forte1340

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell23/3927312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edwin Baker8384.81
MarQueis Gray23015.00
Jason Campbell11717.00
Chris Ogbonnaya571.40
Fozzy Whittaker111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Little47680
Josh Gordon310671
Edwin Baker44460
Chris Ogbonnaya55390
Jordan Cameron36230
Gary Barnidge11170
Davone Bess1390
Fozzy Whittaker2240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.46