Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play-0.075
- 45.2%Success rate39.2%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.074
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.076
- 9.9%Explosive rate7.2%
- +4.85CPOE-3.79
- 42.7%Third-down rate34.9%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.95Points / drive1.27
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. CLE are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 22/31 | 265 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 24 | 127 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 3 | 44 | 14.7 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 6 | 12 | 95 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 6 | 72 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 6 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 4 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 23/39 | 273 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edwin Baker | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 1 |
| MarQueis Gray | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Little | 4 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 3 | 10 | 67 | 1 |
| Edwin Baker | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.46