2005 · Week 5

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Kyle Orton

10·20

Browns

Cleveland

QB Trent Dilfer

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CLE -3

Total

35

Model margin

+0.0est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.138EPA / play-0.131
  • 37.0%Success rate39.5%
  • -0.147EPA / dropback-0.097
  • -0.129EPA / rush-0.183
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 28.3%Third-down rate32.4%
  • 49.7%Red-zone TD rate38.1%
  • 1.08Points / drive1.22
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.167EPA / play allowed-0.004

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.6 points. CLE are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CLE @ CHI3–31CHI
2023 · W15CHI @ CLE17–20CLE
2021 · W3CHI @ CLE6–26CLE
2017 · W16CLE @ CHI3–20CHI
2013 · W15CHI @ CLE38–31CHI
2009 · W8CLE @ CHI6–30CHI
2001 · W8CLE @ CHI21–27CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–CLE
CHIQ1 15:00513Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:35652Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 8:16432Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 6:12416Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 4:1731Punt0–3
CLEQ1 2:2835Punt0–3
CHIQ1 0:43522Turnover on downs0–3
CLEQ2 13:38628Turnover0–3
CHIQ2 10:314-2Field goal3–3
CLEQ2 9:0137Punt3–3
CHIQ2 7:22944Missed field goal3–3
CLEQ2 2:15736Field goal3–6
CHIQ2 0:3700End of half3–6
CLEQ3 15:00815Punt3–6
CHIQ3 11:471293Touchdown10–6
CLEQ3 5:29714Punt10–6
CHIQ3 2:141-2Turnover10–6
CLEQ3 2:04818Punt10–6
CHIQ4 13:1239Punt10–6
CLEQ4 11:2435Punt10–6
CHIQ4 10:34927Punt10–6
CLEQ4 5:47554Touchdown10–13
CHIQ4 3:023-2Turnover10–13
CLEQ4 2:37229Touchdown10–20
CHIQ4 2:24632Turnover on downs10–20
CLEQ4 1:1500End of half10–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton16/2611710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones241375.70
Adrian Peterson2199.50
Kyle Orton3144.70
Cedric Benson561.20

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Dilfer23/3421822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reuben Droughns17724.20
William Green210.50
Trent Dilfer2-1-0.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.2%

Expected total

41.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.04