Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
38
Model margin
+1.6est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play-0.127
- 41.6%Success rate39.3%
- -0.057EPA / dropback-0.131
- -0.045EPA / rush-0.121
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- +0.01CPOE-5.66
- 41.7%Third-down rate32.3%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.72Points / drive1.56
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. CLE are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 19/40 | 166 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roschon Johnson | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Tyler Scott | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 6 | -6 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 4 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Tyler Scott | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 4 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 5 | 7 | 23 | 1 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 8 | 14 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 28/44 | 374 | 2 | 3 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 8 | 109 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 10 | 14 | 104 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 1 | 57 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 4 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 4 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.65