2023 · Week 15

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

17·20

Browns

Cleveland

QB Joe Flacco

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

CLE -3

Total

38

Model margin

+1.6est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.052EPA / play-0.127
  • 41.6%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.057EPA / dropback-0.131
  • -0.045EPA / rush-0.121
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +0.01CPOE-5.66
  • 41.7%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.56
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.6 points. CLE are 2-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CLE @ CHI3–31CHI
2021 · W3CHI @ CLE6–26CLE
2017 · W16CLE @ CHI3–20CHI
2013 · W15CHI @ CLE38–31CHI
2009 · W8CLE @ CHI6–30CHI
2005 · W5CHI @ CLE10–20CLE
2001 · W8CLE @ CHI21–27CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00614Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:0835Punt0–0
CLEQ1 10:2138Punt0–0
CHIQ1 8:4935Punt0–0
CLEQ1 7:14415Punt0–0
CHIQ1 4:48630Punt0–0
CLEQ1 2:0532Punt0–0
CHIQ1 0:39313Punt0–0
CLEQ2 14:0422Turnover0–0
CHIQ2 13:1762Touchdown7–0
CLEQ2 10:541284Touchdown7–7
CHIQ2 3:4836Punt7–7
CLEQ2 2:18527Punt7–7
CHIQ2 0:591061Turnover7–7
CHIQ3 15:003-4Punt13–7
CLEQ3 14:0110Opp touchdown14–7
CLEQ3 13:5037Punt14–7
CHIQ3 11:45847Field goal17–7
CLEQ3 7:073-10Punt17–7
CHIQ3 6:053-9Punt17–7
CLEQ3 4:38413Punt17–7
CLEQ3 2:3110Turnover17–7
CHIQ3 2:17732Turnover on downs17–7
CLEQ4 14:56567Field goal17–10
CHIQ4 12:2736Punt17–10
CLEQ4 10:3530Punt17–10
CHIQ4 8:39614Punt17–10
CLEQ4 5:18680Touchdown17–17
CHIQ4 3:083-2Punt17–17
CLEQ4 1:50868Field goal17–20
CHIQ4 0:32530Turnover17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields19/4016612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Roschon Johnson5367.20
Justin Fields7304.30
Velus Jones Jr.22311.50
Khalil Herbert681.30
Tyler Scott1-3-3.00
D'Onta Foreman6-6-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore48520
Tyler Scott34490
Roschon Johnson46240
Cole Kmet57231
Darnell Mooney28140
Khalil Herbert1140
Robert Tonyan0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco28/4437423
Dorian Thompson-Robinson1/1500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Ford8202.50
Kareem Hunt781.10
Pierre Strong221.00
Joe Flacco1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper481091
David Njoku10141041
Marquise Goodwin11570
Cedric Tillman48520
Elijah Moore23170
Kareem Hunt11120
Jerome Ford45110
Pierre Strong2290
Jordan Akins1180
Harrison Bryant0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.65