Closing spread
OAK -6
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. SEA are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 15 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 12:51 | 3 | 11 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 11:43 | 7 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| SEA | Q1 7:12 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 5:35 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| SEA | Q1 4:05 | 6 | 31 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| LV | Q1 0:58 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 7–10 |
| SEA | Q2 13:15 | 8 | 21 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 9:56 | 6 | 21 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| SEA | Q2 6:04 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LV | Q2 4:02 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–10 |
| SEA | Q2 1:49 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LV | Q2 1:09 | 5 | 21 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| SEA | Q2 0:19 | 2 | 26 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–13 |
| LV | Q3 13:14 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 10–13 |
| SEA | Q3 11:14 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 10–13 |
| LV | Q3 9:04 | 6 | 82 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| SEA | Q3 6:58 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| LV | Q3 6:08 | 9 | 74 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| SEA | Q3 0:56 | 6 | 12 | Turnover on downs | 17–13 |
| LV | Q4 13:08 | 3 | 15 | Touchdown | 24–13 |
| SEA | Q4 11:48 | 12 | 68 | Touchdown | 24–19 |
| LV | Q4 5:16 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 24–19 |
| SEA | Q4 2:52 | 3 | 53 | Safety | 24–21 |
| SEA | Q4 2:24 | 9 | 61 | Touchdown | 24–27 |
| LV | Q4 0:28 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 24–27 |
| SEA | Q4 0:12 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 24–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 19/30 | 177 | 2 | 1 |
| Travis Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 26 | 168 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 4 | 6 | 52 | 1 |
| Ricky Watters | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 4 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Derrick Mayes | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.65
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.