Closing spread
MIN -2
Total
44
Model margin
+1.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.048EPA / play-0.050
- 40.3%Success rate42.2%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.012
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.133
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.6%
- 35.2%Third-down rate42.5%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.21Points / drive1.40
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.7%
- -0.053EPA / play allowed+0.044
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 12–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. MIN are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 37 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 12:31 | 11 | 56 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q1 6:46 | 10 | 27 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| NYG | Q1 2:40 | 6 | 46 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| MIN | Q1 0:04 | 7 | 21 | Punt | 10–7 |
| NYG | Q2 11:26 | 7 | 4 | Punt | 10–7 |
| MIN | Q2 7:53 | 8 | 59 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| NYG | Q2 3:54 | 7 | 55 | Field goal | 13–14 |
| MIN | Q2 1:05 | 7 | 46 | Turnover | 13–14 |
| NYG | Q2 0:18 | 3 | 22 | Missed field goal | 13–14 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 57 | Field goal | 16–14 |
| MIN | Q3 11:28 | 14 | 51 | Turnover | 16–14 |
| NYG | Q3 4:24 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 16–14 |
| MIN | Q3 2:57 | 14 | 62 | Touchdown | 16–21 |
| NYG | Q4 9:03 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 16–21 |
| MIN | Q4 7:55 | 3 | 52 | Touchdown | 16–28 |
| NYG | Q4 6:32 | 10 | 77 | Turnover | 16–28 |
| MIN | Q4 3:05 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 16–28 |
| NYG | Q4 2:08 | 3 | 36 | Turnover | 16–28 |
| MIN | Q4 1:43 | 3 | -5 | End of half | 16–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 21/37 | 321 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 8 | 55 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Kerry Collins | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 6 | 10 | 106 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 5 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 4 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 3 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 26/38 | 277 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 10 | 13 | 171 | 3 |
| Cris Carter | 10 | 13 | 46 | 1 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.31