2001 · Week 10

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Tony Banks

17·10

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

DEN -8.5

Total

43

Model margin

+1.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBroncos
  • -0.103EPA / play-0.044
  • 38.9%Success rate42.2%
  • -0.101EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.075
  • 8.6%Explosive rate6.2%
  • 34.9%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 43.9%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.18Points / drive1.49
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.069EPA / play allowed-0.038

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13DEN @ WAS27–26DEN
2023 · W2WAS @ DEN35–33WAS
2021 · W8WAS @ DEN10–17DEN
2017 · W16DEN @ WAS11–27WAS
2013 · W8WAS @ DEN21–45DEN
2009 · W10DEN @ WAS17–27WAS
2005 · W5WAS @ DEN19–21DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DEN
DENQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:3710Turnover0–0
DENQ1 13:2934Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:42619Punt0–0
DENQ1 9:07412Punt0–0
WASQ1 7:33613Punt0–0
DENQ1 4:2830Punt0–0
WASQ1 3:1941Punt0–0
DENQ1 1:181046Field goal0–3
WASQ2 11:03614Turnover0–3
DENQ2 8:3435Punt0–3
DENQ2 6:32613Touchdown0–10
WASQ2 3:19842Field goal3–10
DENQ2 0:111-1End of half3–10
WASQ3 15:00427Punt3–10
DENQ3 11:57411Punt3–10
WASQ3 10:4130Punt3–10
DENQ3 8:37616Punt3–10
WASQ3 6:16617Punt3–10
DENQ3 4:02427Turnover3–10
WASQ3 2:26745Touchdown10–10
DENQ4 14:1831Punt10–10
WASQ4 12:24520Punt10–10
DENQ4 10:2439Punt10–10
WASQ4 8:361152Touchdown17–10
DENQ4 2:48721Turnover on downs17–10
WASQ4 1:423-5Punt17–10
DENQ4 0:05116Turnover17–10

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kent Graham12/1812320
Tony Banks4/132700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis24974.00
Ki-Jana Carter2168.00
Tony Banks2105.00
Kent Graham4-5-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Westbrook9121041
Rod Gardner29190
Zeron Flemister23181
Ki-Jana Carter1150
Stephen Davis1120
Derrius Thompson1120
Kevin Lockett0300
Walter Rasby0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese11/3111410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Anderson13312.40
Brian Griese4297.30
Olandis Gary10282.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Cole26370
Rod Smith36251
Keith Poole23190
Desmond Clark36170
Mike Anderson13160
Tony Carter0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.52.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.0%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.09