2001 · Week 10
Final
Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
DEN -8.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play-0.044
- 38.9%Success rate42.2%
- -0.101EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.075
- 8.6%Explosive rate6.2%
- 34.9%Third-down rate37.7%
- 43.9%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.18Points / drive1.49
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.069EPA / play allowed-0.038
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Graham | 12/18 | 123 | 2 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 4/13 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 24 | 97 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kent Graham | 4 | -5 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Westbrook | 9 | 12 | 104 | 1 |
| Rod Gardner | 2 | 9 | 19 | 0 |
| Zeron Flemister | 2 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Derrius Thompson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 11/31 | 114 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Cole | 2 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 3 | 6 | 25 | 1 |
| Keith Poole | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.09