2021 · Week 8

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

10·17

Broncos

Denver

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DEN -4

Total

45

Model margin

+2.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBroncos
  • -0.036EPA / play+0.021
  • 44.8%Success rate44.7%
  • -0.018EPA / dropback+0.100
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.093
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -0.08CPOE+2.34
  • 38.3%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 59.5%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.89
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13DEN @ WAS27–26DEN
2023 · W2WAS @ DEN35–33WAS
2017 · W16DEN @ WAS11–27WAS
2013 · W8WAS @ DEN21–45DEN
2009 · W10DEN @ WAS17–27WAS
2005 · W5WAS @ DEN19–21DEN
2001 · W10WAS @ DEN17–10WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DEN
WASQ1 15:00956Turnover on downs0–0
DENQ1 9:301142Punt0–0
WASQ1 4:101146Missed field goal0–0
DENQ2 13:42638Field goal0–3
WASQ2 10:27941Field goal3–3
DENQ2 5:25775Touchdown3–10
WASQ2 1:11729Turnover3–10
DENQ3 15:00619Punt3–10
WASQ3 10:594-1Punt3–10
DENQ3 8:5735Punt3–10
WASQ3 7:021094Touchdown10–10
DENQ3 0:38930Missed field goal10–10
WASQ4 10:57528Missed field goal10–10
DENQ4 8:55863Touchdown10–17
WASQ4 4:271155Turnover10–17
DENQ4 0:3731Turnover10–17
WASQ4 0:214-6Turnover on downs10–17

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke24/3927012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaret Patterson11464.20
Antonio Gibson8344.30
Terry McLaurin11212.00
Taylor Heinicke11010.00
J.D. McKissic3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
J.D. McKissic88830
DeAndre Carter36511
Adam Humphries23350
Terry McLaurin37230
Dax Milne12220
Cam Sims12200
Antonio Gibson33200
Ricky Seals-Jones24120
John Bates1140
Jaret Patterson0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater19/2621310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon10474.71
Javonte Williams9353.90
Teddy Bridgewater111.00
Jerry Jeudy100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tim Patrick33640
Courtland Sutton24400
Jerry Jeudy44390
Albert Okwuegbunam33340
Melvin Gordon33151
Javonte Williams24130
Noah Fant2480

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.51
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+2.45