2021 · Week 8
Final
Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
DEN -4
Total
45
Model margin
+2.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.021
- 44.8%Success rate44.7%
- -0.018EPA / dropback+0.100
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.093
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.1%
- -0.08CPOE+2.34
- 38.3%Third-down rate38.3%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.78Points / drive1.89
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 24/39 | 270 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaret Patterson | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. McKissic | 8 | 8 | 83 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 3 | 6 | 51 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Dax Milne | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 19/26 | 213 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 3 | 64 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.51
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.45