2013 · Week 8
Final
Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
DEN -11
Total
58
Model margin
+6.9est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play+0.205
- 42.2%Success rate50.2%
- -0.053EPA / dropback+0.346
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.029
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.8%
- -3.92CPOE+6.21
- 40.7%Third-down rate47.1%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate81.1%
- 1.37Points / drive2.85
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 15/30 | 132 | 1 | 2 |
| Kirk Cousins | 5/9 | 48 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 17 | 93 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Roy Helu | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Reed | 8 | 14 | 90 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 7 | 11 | 46 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 30/44 | 354 | 4 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 1 |
| C.J. Anderson | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Trindon Holliday | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 6 | 6 | 89 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 6 | 10 | 81 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 7 | 11 | 75 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Virgil Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.1%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.89