2013 · Week 8

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

21·45

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DEN -11

Total

58

Model margin

+6.9est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBroncos
  • -0.058EPA / play+0.205
  • 42.2%Success rate50.2%
  • -0.053EPA / dropback+0.346
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.029
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -3.92CPOE+6.21
  • 40.7%Third-down rate47.1%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate81.1%
  • 1.37Points / drive2.85
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13DEN @ WAS27–26DEN
2023 · W2WAS @ DEN35–33WAS
2021 · W8WAS @ DEN10–17DEN
2017 · W16DEN @ WAS11–27WAS
2009 · W10DEN @ WAS17–27WAS
2005 · W5WAS @ DEN19–21DEN
2001 · W10WAS @ DEN17–10WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DEN
WASQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:42977Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 10:02619Punt0–7
DENQ1 8:10522Punt0–7
WASQ1 6:19732Punt0–7
DENQ1 2:31630Punt0–7
WASQ2 14:44610Punt0–7
DENQ2 11:52950Punt0–7
WASQ2 7:221690Touchdown7–7
DENQ2 0:1900End of half7–7
DENQ3 15:005-1Turnover7–7
WASQ3 12:56319Touchdown14–7
DENQ3 11:3410Opp touchdown21–7
DENQ3 11:251170Touchdown21–14
WASQ3 7:48517Punt21–14
DENQ3 4:551683Touchdown21–21
WASQ4 14:5630Punt21–27
DENQ4 14:29135Touchdown21–28
WASQ4 14:1935Turnover21–28
DENQ4 13:15423Field goal21–31
WASQ4 11:1430Punt21–31
DENQ4 9:48425Turnover21–31
WASQ4 7:542-4Turnover21–31
DENQ4 7:09335Touchdown21–38
WASQ4 6:35424Turnover21–38
DENQ4 5:4330Turnover21–38
WASQ4 4:11839Opp touchdown21–45
WASQ4 2:07210Turnover21–45
DENQ4 1:5300End of half21–45

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III15/3013212
Kirk Cousins5/94802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris17935.51
Roy Helu5112.20
Robert Griffin III571.40
Kirk Cousins111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Reed814900
Pierre Garcon711460
Santana Moss25200
Roy Helu11140
Leonard Hankerson1371
Josh Morgan1230
Logan Paulsen0100
Aldrick Robinson0200

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning30/4435443

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno13433.30
Montee Ball12383.21
C.J. Anderson4225.50
Trindon Holliday177.00
Peyton Manning4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Knowshon Moreno66891
Wes Welker610811
Demaryius Thomas711751
Eric Decker47420
Julius Thomas33290
Jacob Tamme11150
Andre Caldwell12140
Joel Dreessen2291
Virgil Green0100
Montee Ball0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +115.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.63%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.1%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.89