2017 · Week 16
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.119EPA / play-0.051
- 38.4%Success rate40.8%
- -0.110EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.203
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.1%
- -2.16CPOE+1.00
- 38.9%Third-down rate32.5%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.24Points / drive1.61
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 22/38 | 193 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 16 | 88 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| De'Angelo Henderson Sr. | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 7 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 5 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Jordan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Austin Traylor | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| De'Angelo Henderson Sr. | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 19/37 | 299 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 17 | 53 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 4 | 6 | 85 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 2 | 13 | 61 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 3 | 42 | 1 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Brian Quick | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.06
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.98
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.46