2017 · Week 16

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Brock Osweiler

11·27

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

WAS -3

Total

39.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapCommanders
  • -0.119EPA / play-0.051
  • 38.4%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.110EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.203
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -2.16CPOE+1.00
  • 38.9%Third-down rate32.5%
  • 42.9%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.24Points / drive1.61
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13DEN @ WAS27–26DEN
2023 · W2WAS @ DEN35–33WAS
2021 · W8WAS @ DEN10–17DEN
2013 · W8WAS @ DEN21–45DEN
2009 · W10DEN @ WAS17–27WAS
2005 · W5WAS @ DEN19–21DEN
2001 · W10WAS @ DEN17–10WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–WAS
DENQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:073-1Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:06644Punt0–0
WASQ1 8:563-1Punt0–0
DENQ1 8:01933Field goal3–0
WASQ1 2:06616Punt3–0
DENQ2 14:45744Punt3–0
WASQ2 11:321083Field goal3–3
DENQ2 6:15423Turnover3–3
WASQ2 4:33538Touchdown3–10
DENQ2 2:07428Turnover3–10
WASQ2 1:3034Punt3–10
DENQ2 0:52534End of half3–10
WASQ3 15:001068Turnover3–10
DENQ3 9:273-2Punt3–10
WASQ3 7:56855Field goal3–13
DENQ3 3:30610Punt3–13
WASQ4 14:48577Touchdown3–20
DENQ4 12:07720Punt3–20
WASQ4 8:53614Punt3–20
DENQ4 6:3648Turnover on downs3–20
WASQ4 5:1630Turnover3–20
DENQ4 4:5634Turnover3–20
WASQ4 4:41335Touchdown3–27
DENQ4 4:211175Touchdown11–27
WASQ4 1:1800End of half11–27

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler22/3819301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson16885.51
Devontae Booker8475.90
Brock Osweiler4276.80
De'Angelo Henderson Sr.1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas46520
C.J. Anderson79450
Devontae Booker58240
Jordan Taylor12220
Austin Traylor12140
Isaiah McKenzie1280
De'Angelo Henderson Sr.1170
Bennie Fowler0300
Jeff Heuerman0200

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins19/3729931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samaje Perine17533.10
Kapri Bibbs7263.70
Kirk Cousins581.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ryan Grant46850
Josh Doctson213611
Jamison Crowder44471
Vernon Davis23421
Kapri Bibbs24280
Samaje Perine33210
Brian Quick1190
Jeremy Sprinkle1160
Niles Paul0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.98
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.46