2023 · Week 2
Final
Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors
Closing spread
DEN -4
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play-0.046
- 41.9%Success rate42.3%
- -0.069EPA / dropback-0.005
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.110
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.6%
- +0.32CPOE+3.74
- 35.6%Third-down rate36.8%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 1.53Points / drive1.87
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 27/39 | 299 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 18 | 87 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Sam Howell | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 6 | 54 | 1 |
| John Bates | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 2 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Jahan Dotson | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Cole Turner | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 18/32 | 308 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 56 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 2 | 113 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Brandon Johnson | 2 | 3 | 66 | 2 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.93
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.63