2023 · Week 2

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Sam Howell

35·33

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors

Closing spread

DEN -4

Total

38.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBroncos
  • -0.084EPA / play-0.046
  • 41.9%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback-0.005
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.110
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +0.32CPOE+3.74
  • 35.6%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 1.53Points / drive1.87
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13DEN @ WAS27–26DEN
2021 · W8WAS @ DEN10–17DEN
2017 · W16DEN @ WAS11–27WAS
2013 · W8WAS @ DEN21–45DEN
2009 · W10DEN @ WAS17–27WAS
2005 · W5WAS @ DEN19–21DEN
2001 · W10WAS @ DEN17–10WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DEN
WASQ1 15:00845Missed field goal0–0
DENQ1 10:19761Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 6:141045Field goal3–7
DENQ1 0:24260Touchdown3–14
WASQ1 0:123-1Punt3–14
DENQ2 14:02990Touchdown3–21
WASQ2 9:0131Punt3–21
DENQ2 7:5734Turnover3–21
WASQ2 6:341144Touchdown11–21
DENQ2 1:4738Punt11–21
WASQ2 1:20856Field goal14–21
DENQ3 15:003-11Punt14–21
WASQ3 13:48557Touchdown21–21
DENQ3 11:47511Turnover21–21
WASQ3 10:2543Missed field goal21–21
DENQ3 7:32838Field goal21–24
WASQ3 2:11878Touchdown28–24
DENQ4 13:2541Punt28–24
WASQ4 12:22959Touchdown35–24
DENQ4 7:111445Field goal35–27
WASQ4 1:5031Punt35–27
DENQ4 0:48692Touchdown35–33

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Howell27/3929920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson18874.82
Curtis Samuel11313.00
Sam Howell2136.50
Antonio Gibson294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin56541
John Bates35460
Antonio Gibson33440
Brian Robinson23420
Dyami Brown33250
Logan Thomas23221
Jahan Dotson35220
Cole Turner22210
Curtis Samuel33190
Byron Pringle1140

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson18/3230831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson6569.30
Javonte Williams12443.70
Marvin Mims Jr.2105.00
Jaleel McLaughlin155.01
Samaje Perine144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Mims Jr.221131
Courtland Sutton57660
Brandon Johnson23662
Jerry Jeudy35250
Samaje Perine34200
Javonte Williams23140
Lil'Jordan Humphrey1240
Adam Trautman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.4%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.63