2005 · Week 5
Final
Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
DEN -7
Total
34.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.088
- 41.3%Success rate44.7%
- +0.100EPA / dropback+0.109
- -0.083EPA / rush+0.067
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.5%
- 43.1%Third-down rate36.1%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.80Points / drive1.97
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%
- -0.058EPA / play allowed-0.051
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 33 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 12:31 | 4 | 43 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q1 11:40 | 15 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q1 3:47 | 12 | 88 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| WAS | Q2 12:07 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 7–14 |
| DEN | Q2 9:57 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–14 |
| WAS | Q2 8:46 | 7 | 39 | Punt | 7–14 |
| DEN | Q2 5:15 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–14 |
| WAS | Q2 4:13 | 7 | 52 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| DEN | Q2 1:42 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–14 |
| WAS | Q2 0:33 | 5 | 25 | End of half | 10–14 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–14 |
| WAS | Q3 13:24 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 10–14 |
| DEN | Q3 10:48 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–14 |
| WAS | Q3 8:50 | 4 | 29 | Missed field goal | 10–14 |
| DEN | Q3 7:21 | 3 | 60 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| WAS | Q3 6:27 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 10–21 |
| DEN | Q3 3:45 | 10 | 25 | Punt | 10–21 |
| WAS | Q4 14:41 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 10–21 |
| DEN | Q4 12:16 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 10–21 |
| WAS | Q4 8:27 | 4 | 22 | Field goal | 13–21 |
| DEN | Q4 6:25 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 13–21 |
| DEN | Q4 6:23 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 13–21 |
| WAS | Q4 4:37 | 15 | 79 | Touchdown | 19–21 |
| DEN | Q4 1:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 19–21 |
| DEN | Q4 0:00 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 19–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 30/53 | 322 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 20 | 103 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 10/25 | 92 | 1 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 12 | 127 | 10.6 | 2 |
| Mike Anderson | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.34