2005 · Week 5

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Mark Brunell

19·21

Broncos

Denver

QB Jake Plummer

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DEN -7

Total

34.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.088
  • 41.3%Success rate44.7%
  • +0.100EPA / dropback+0.109
  • -0.083EPA / rush+0.067
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.5%
  • 43.1%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.97
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%
  • -0.058EPA / play allowed-0.051

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13DEN @ WAS27–26DEN
2023 · W2WAS @ DEN35–33WAS
2021 · W8WAS @ DEN10–17DEN
2017 · W16DEN @ WAS11–27WAS
2013 · W8WAS @ DEN21–45DEN
2009 · W10DEN @ WAS17–27WAS
2001 · W10WAS @ DEN17–10WAS

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell30/5332220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis201035.20
Mark Brunell4174.30
Ladell Betts252.50

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer10/259210
Rod Smith0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tatum Bell1212710.62
Mike Anderson11343.10
Jake Plummer540.80

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

4.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.34