2025 · Week 13

Final / OT

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

27·26

Commanders

Washington

QB Marcus Mariota

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

DEN -6.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-1.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapCommanders
  • +0.036EPA / play+0.035
  • 43.7%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.097EPA / dropback+0.084
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.039
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -1.38CPOE+0.67
  • 42.4%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 62.1%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 2.10Points / drive2.03
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2WAS @ DEN35–33WAS
2021 · W8WAS @ DEN10–17DEN
2017 · W16DEN @ WAS11–27WAS
2013 · W8WAS @ DEN21–45DEN
2009 · W10DEN @ WAS17–27WAS
2005 · W5WAS @ DEN19–21DEN
2001 · W10WAS @ DEN17–10WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–WAS
DENQ1 15:001059Field goal3–0
WASQ1 10:281135Punt3–0
DENQ1 4:3636Punt3–0
WASQ1 2:57939Turnover3–0
DENQ2 14:211256Field goal6–0
WASQ2 7:511269Touchdown6–7
DENQ2 2:211064Touchdown13–7
WASQ2 0:2300End of half13–7
WASQ3 15:001072Touchdown13–14
DENQ3 9:581282Touchdown20–14
WASQ3 3:59520Punt20–14
DENQ3 0:44519Turnover20–14
WASQ4 14:06416Field goal20–17
DENQ4 12:3731Punt20–17
WASQ4 10:1238Punt20–17
DENQ4 8:42733Punt20–17
WASQ4 4:4245Punt20–17
DENQ4 3:3136Punt20–17
WASQ4 3:001786Field goal20–20
DENOT576Touchdown27–20
WASOT1370Touchdown27–26

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix29/4532111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
RJ Harvey13352.72
Jaleel McLaughlin6244.00
Bo Nix2168.00
Marvin Mims Jr.199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram69790
Courtland Sutton56621
Adam Trautman34470
Pat Bryant37420
RJ Harvey34270
Troy Franklin23210
Tyler Badie35180
Marvin Mims Jr.2280
Jaleel McLaughlin1160
Lil'Jordan Humphrey0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota28/5029421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcus Mariota10555.50
Chris Rodriguez Jr.11413.71
Jeremy McNichols6305.00
Jacory Croskey-Merritt4205.00
Deebo Samuel Sr.2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz10131060
Terry McLaurin714961
Deebo Samuel Sr.57640
Colson Yankoff11140
John Bates2290
Treylon Burks1451
Jeremy McNichols2200
Chris Rodriguez Jr.0100
Jaylin Lane0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

3.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.7%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.62