2025 · Week 13
Final / OT
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
DEN -6.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.035
- 43.7%Success rate46.4%
- +0.097EPA / dropback+0.084
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.039
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.6%
- -1.38CPOE+0.67
- 42.4%Third-down rate37.2%
- 62.1%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 2.10Points / drive2.03
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 29/45 | 321 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 13 | 35 | 2.7 | 2 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 6 | 9 | 79 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 6 | 62 | 1 |
| Adam Trautman | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Pat Bryant | 3 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 28/50 | 294 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 10 | 55 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 10 | 13 | 106 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 14 | 96 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Colson Yankoff | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| John Bates | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylin Lane | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
3.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.62