2009 · Week 10

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

17·27

Commanders

Washington

QB Jason Campbell

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

36

Model margin

+2.2est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapCommanders
  • -0.026EPA / play-0.047
  • 42.0%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.029EPA / dropback+0.023
  • -0.107EPA / rush-0.168
  • 8.9%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -2.00CPOE+1.16
  • 36.3%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 54.5%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.38
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13DEN @ WAS27–26DEN
2023 · W2WAS @ DEN35–33WAS
2021 · W8WAS @ DEN10–17DEN
2017 · W16DEN @ WAS11–27WAS
2013 · W8WAS @ DEN21–45DEN
2005 · W5WAS @ DEN19–21DEN
2001 · W10WAS @ DEN17–10WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–WAS
DENQ1 15:00467Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 12:471278Touchdown7–7
DENQ1 6:32429Turnover7–7
WASQ1 4:3631Punt13–7
DENQ1 3:46175Touchdown14–7
WASQ1 3:35638Punt14–7
DENQ1 0:38616Punt14–7
WASQ2 12:2338Punt14–7
DENQ2 10:5630Punt14–7
WASQ2 9:30769Touchdown14–14
DENQ2 6:301782Field goal17–14
WASQ2 0:0500End of half17–14
WASQ3 15:0048Punt17–14
DENQ3 12:55934Punt17–14
WASQ3 9:03938Turnover on downs17–14
DENQ3 4:313-5Punt17–14
WASQ3 2:551279Field goal17–17
DENQ4 10:40314Turnover17–17
WASQ4 8:571160Touchdown17–24
DENQ4 2:4440Turnover on downs17–24
WASQ4 2:1439Field goal17–27
DENQ4 1:104-7Turnover on downs17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton11/1819320
Chris Simms3/131301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno18975.40
Correll Buckhalter2115.50
Brandon Marshall199.00
Kyle Orton133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall5101342
Tony Scheffler45290
Eddie Royal24210
Brandon Stokley12150
Knowshon Moreno2570
Correll Buckhalter0100
Daniel Graham0300
Jabar Gaffney0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell17/2619310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ladell Betts261144.41
Rock Cartwright9414.60
Jason Campbell2157.50
Quinton Ganther341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Fred Davis46500
Antwaan Randle El34450
Devin Thomas24370
Mike Sellers11351
Quinton Ganther11180
Malcolm Kelly11180
Rock Cartwright2290
Santana Moss2480
Ladell Betts1260
Todd Yoder1121

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.19