2009 · Week 10
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
36
Model margin
+2.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.026EPA / play-0.047
- 42.0%Success rate41.0%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.168
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.1%
- -2.00CPOE+1.16
- 36.3%Third-down rate39.7%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.49Points / drive1.38
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 11/18 | 193 | 2 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 3/13 | 13 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 18 | 97 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | 10 | 134 | 2 |
| Tony Scheffler | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 17/26 | 193 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 26 | 114 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Rock Cartwright | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Quinton Ganther | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Davis | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 1 | 35 | 1 |
| Quinton Ganther | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Malcolm Kelly | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Todd Yoder | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.19