Closing spread
OAK -2.5
Total
39
Model margin
+2.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. NYG are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NYG | Q1 10:24 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:37 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NYG | Q1 7:37 | 6 | 54 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| LV | Q1 3:31 | 10 | 63 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| NYG | Q2 12:52 | 14 | 58 | Punt | 14–3 |
| LV | Q2 4:51 | 7 | 94 | Touchdown | 21–3 |
| NYG | Q2 1:51 | 9 | 24 | Punt | 21–3 |
| LV | Q2 0:12 | 1 | -2 | End of half | 21–3 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 44 | Turnover on downs | 21–3 |
| LV | Q3 10:55 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 21–3 |
| NYG | Q3 8:06 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| LV | Q3 4:10 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 21–10 |
| NYG | Q3 2:21 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 21–10 |
| LV | Q4 14:46 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 21–10 |
| NYG | Q4 13:50 | 4 | 2 | Turnover on downs | 21–10 |
| LV | Q4 12:30 | 5 | 65 | Touchdown | 28–10 |
| NYG | Q4 9:34 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 28–10 |
| LV | Q4 8:09 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 28–10 |
| NYG | Q4 5:34 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 28–10 |
| LV | Q4 4:35 | 6 | 16 | Turnover on downs | 28–10 |
| NYG | Q4 1:10 | 2 | 8 | End of half | 28–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 19/38 | 184 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 19 | 124 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 4 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 5 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 2 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.30
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.