Closing spread
NYG -15.5
Total
38
Model margin
+0.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. NYG are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 8/10 | 173 | 2 | 0 |
| David Carr | 9/14 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 11 | 110 | 10.0 | 2 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 21 | 67 | 3.2 | 0 |
| David Carr | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Gartrell Johnson | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 1 | 1 | 55 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Mario Manningham | 2 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| Darcy Johnson | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.76
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.