Closing spread
NYG -15.5
Total
38
Model margin
+0.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutChaz SchilensWRFoot· DNP
- OutCornell GreenTCalf· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutDarren McFaddenRBKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutNick MillerWRShin· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutOren O'NealRBAnkle· DNP
- OutRobert GalleryGFibula· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableMichael HuffSQuadricep· Limited
- QuestionableZach MillerTEConcussion· Full
- ProbableHiram EugeneSCalf· Full
- ProbableNnamdi AsomughaCBWrist· Full
- ProbableTyvon BranchSHip· Full
Giants
- OutAaron RossCBHamstring· DNP
- OutBryan KehlLBFinger· DNP
- OutChris CantyDTCalf· DNP
- OutMichael BoleyLBKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulKevin BossTEAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableDanny WareRBElbow· Limited
- QuestionableEli ManningQBFoot· Limited
- DNPDave TollefsonDEIllness
- ProbableAhmad BradshawRBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableClint SintimLBGroin· Full
- ProbableDomenik HixonWRKnee· Full
- ProbableJustin TuckDEShoulder· Full
- ProbableRich SeubertGShoulder· Full
Win probability
- Giants
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. NYG are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 15 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 6:57 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 4:52 | 3 | 79 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LV | Q1 3:15 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–14 |
| NYG | Q1 1:27 | 5 | 109 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| LV | Q2 14:53 | 3 | -9 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| NYG | Q2 14:06 | 3 | 13 | Touchdown | 0–28 |
| LV | Q2 12:37 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–28 |
| NYG | Q2 10:10 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–28 |
| LV | Q2 7:18 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 0–28 |
| LV | Q2 3:25 | 4 | 6 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| NYG | Q2 2:19 | 6 | 48 | Punt | 7–28 |
| LV | Q2 0:43 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 7–28 |
| NYG | Q2 0:27 | 2 | 13 | Field goal | 7–31 |
| LV | Q2 0:02 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 7–31 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–31 |
| NYG | Q3 13:19 | 7 | 40 | Touchdown | 7–38 |
| LV | Q3 10:01 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 7–38 |
| NYG | Q3 9:08 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 7–41 |
| LV | Q3 6:52 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 7–41 |
| NYG | Q3 2:56 | 10 | 56 | Field goal | 7–44 |
| LV | Q4 11:38 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 7–44 |
| NYG | Q4 8:29 | 9 | 43 | Punt | 7–44 |
| LV | Q4 1:53 | 3 | 4 | End of half | 7–44 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 8/10 | 173 | 2 | 0 |
| David Carr | 9/14 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 11 | 110 | 10.0 | 2 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 21 | 67 | 3.2 | 0 |
| David Carr | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Gartrell Johnson | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 1 | 1 | 55 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Mario Manningham | 2 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| Darcy Johnson | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.76
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.