2023 · Week 9

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

6·30

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Aidan O'Connell

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -1

Total

38.5

Model margin

+4.7est.

LV perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapRaiders
  • -0.165EPA / play-0.086
  • 38.2%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.143EPA / dropback-0.045
  • -0.205EPA / rush-0.151
  • 7.6%Explosive rate5.9%
  • +0.19CPOE-3.79
  • 30.9%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 45.8%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.09Points / drive1.66
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43 points. LV are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17NYG @ LV34–10NYG
2021 · W9LV @ NYG16–23NYG
2017 · W13NYG @ OAK17–24RAIDERS
2013 · W10OAK @ NYG20–24NYG
2009 · W5OAK @ NYG7–44NYG
2005 · W17NYG @ OAK30–21NYG
2001 · W11OAK @ NYG28–10RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–LV
NYGQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
LVQ1 13:35672Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 9:45938Turnover on downs0–7
LVQ1 5:3436Punt0–7
NYGQ1 4:111027Punt0–7
LVQ2 13:52418Punt0–7
NYGQ2 11:1737Punt0–7
LVQ2 9:08865Touchdown0–14
NYGQ2 5:06327Turnover0–14
LVQ2 3:36460Touchdown0–21
NYGQ2 1:5710Turnover0–21
LVQ2 1:45520Field goal0–24
NYGQ2 0:0400End of half0–24
LVQ3 15:001467Field goal0–27
NYGQ3 8:2331Punt0–27
LVQ3 6:4634Punt0–27
NYGQ3 5:041188Touchdown6–27
LVQ4 14:1133Punt6–27
NYGQ4 12:3146Turnover on downs6–27
LVQ4 10:2235Field goal6–30
NYGQ4 9:29752Turnover on downs6–30
LVQ4 5:5538Punt6–30
NYGQ4 4:54720Turnover on downs6–30
LVQ4 2:2046Turnover on downs6–30
NYGQ4 0:2712End of half6–30

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy DeVito15/2017512
Daniel Jones4/92500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley16905.60
Tommy DeVito4174.30
Daniel Jones294.50
Matt Breida252.50
Deon Jackson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton47590
Daniel Bellinger33430
Wan'Dale Robinson45351
Saquon Barkley34230
Jalin Hyatt25190
Parris Campbell22150
Matt Breida1260
Isaiah Hodgins0100

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aidan O'Connell16/2520900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs26983.82
Jakobi Meyers11717.01
Ameer Abdullah284.00
Tre Tucker144.00
Zamir White4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tre Tucker23520
Jakobi Meyers25380
Davante Adams47340
Hunter Renfrow23320
Ameer Abdullah22170
DeAndre Carter11150
Michael Mayer22110
Austin Hooper11100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.5%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.35
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.65