Closing spread
LV -1
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
LV perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.165EPA / play-0.086
- 38.2%Success rate41.5%
- -0.143EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.151
- 7.6%Explosive rate5.9%
- +0.19CPOE-3.79
- 30.9%Third-down rate35.2%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.09Points / drive1.66
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. LV are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy DeVito | 15/20 | 175 | 1 | 2 |
| Daniel Jones | 4/9 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 16 | 90 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Tommy DeVito | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Deon Jackson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 4 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 4 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 16/25 | 209 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 26 | 98 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 3 | 52 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.35
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.65