Closing spread
NYG -7.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutD.J. HaydenCBGroin· DNP
- OutDarren McFaddenRBHamstring· DNP
- OutJuron CrinerWRShoulder· DNP
- OutMatt McCantsTToe· DNP
- OutTony PashosTHip· DNP
- OutTyvon BranchSAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableAndre GurodeGQuadricep· Limited
- QuestionableKaluka MaiavaLBRib· DNP
- ProbableTracy PorterCBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableAndre HolmesWRHamstring· Full
- ProbableRod StreaterWRHip· Full
- ProbableSebastian JanikowskiKRib· Full
- ProbableTerrelle PryorQBKnee· Full
Giants
- OutCorey WebsterCBGroin· DNP
- DoubtfulBrandon JacobsRBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableJayron HosleyCBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableTrumaine McBrideCBGroin· Limited
- DNPShaun RogersDTKnee
- ProbableTerrell ThomasCBKnee· Limited
- ProbableAdrien RobinsonTEFoot· Full
- ProbableVictor CruzWRNeck· Full
Win probability
- Giants
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. NYG are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 14:52 | 2 | 5 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NYG | Q1 14:07 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:36 | 7 | 31 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 9:22 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NYG | Q1 7:08 | 5 | 5 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 4:30 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| NYG | Q1 3:21 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LV | Q1 0:18 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–7 |
| NYG | Q2 13:58 | 12 | 85 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| LV | Q2 7:36 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NYG | Q2 4:45 | 6 | 34 | Opp touchdown | 17–14 |
| NYG | Q2 1:18 | 4 | 15 | End of half | 17–14 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 74 | Field goal | 20–14 |
| NYG | Q3 6:56 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 20–14 |
| LV | Q3 5:58 | 5 | 15 | Turnover | 20–14 |
| NYG | Q3 3:01 | 3 | 5 | Touchdown | 20–21 |
| LV | Q3 2:15 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 20–21 |
| NYG | Q4 15:00 | 12 | 70 | Field goal | 20–24 |
| LV | Q4 8:04 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 20–24 |
| NYG | Q4 6:29 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–24 |
| LV | Q4 4:55 | 5 | 12 | Turnover | 20–24 |
| NYG | Q4 3:21 | 5 | 21 | End of half | 20–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 12/22 | 140 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Brown | 30 | 115 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Peyton Hillis | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben Randle | 3 | 3 | 50 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 3 | 10 | 37 | 0 |
| Andre Brown | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.39
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.