Closing spread
NYG -7.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. NYG are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 12/22 | 140 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Brown | 30 | 115 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Peyton Hillis | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben Randle | 3 | 3 | 50 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 3 | 10 | 37 | 0 |
| Andre Brown | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.39
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.