2025 · Week 17

Final

Giants

New York

QB Jaxson Dart

34·10

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Geno Smith

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

-1.4est.

LV perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapRaiders
  • +0.043EPA / play-0.192
  • 42.9%Success rate38.6%
  • +0.099EPA / dropback-0.130
  • -0.040EPA / rush-0.304
  • 8.6%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -1.30CPOE-0.91
  • 39.6%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 56.3%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 2.06Points / drive1.25
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43 points. LV are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9NYG @ LV6–30RAIDERS
2021 · W9LV @ NYG16–23NYG
2017 · W13NYG @ OAK17–24RAIDERS
2013 · W10OAK @ NYG20–24NYG
2009 · W5OAK @ NYG7–44NYG
2005 · W17NYG @ OAK30–21NYG
2001 · W11OAK @ NYG28–10RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–LV
NYGQ1 15:00829Punt0–0
LVQ1 10:2939Punt0–0
NYGQ1 9:0235Punt0–0
LVQ1 7:461064Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 2:36544Touchdown7–0
LVQ2 15:00825Field goal7–3
NYGQ2 9:41865Touchdown14–3
LVQ2 5:5646Punt14–3
NYGQ2 3:231165Field goal17–3
LVQ3 15:0062Punt17–3
NYGQ3 11:521072Field goal20–3
LVQ3 7:171462Touchdown26–10
NYGQ3 0:3100Touchdown27–10
LVQ3 0:18724Turnover27–10
NYGQ4 12:291665Touchdown34–10
LVQ4 3:40639Turnover on downs34–10
NYGQ4 1:4000End of half34–10

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jaxson Dart22/3020700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.14624.40
Jaxson Dart9485.32
Devin Singletary8455.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wan'Dale Robinson11141130
Darius Slayton23360
Devin Singletary44250
Gunner Olszewski11190
Daniel Bellinger23110
Isaiah Hodgins1280
Tyrone Tracy Jr.12-50

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith20/2817612
Kenny Pickett2/21600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty16603.80
Zamir White122.00
Geno Smith111.00
Tre Tucker200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Mayer910890
Tre Tucker56490
Shedrick Jackson23200
Ashton Jeanty22130
Dont'e Thornton Jr.24120
Tyler Lockett2391

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.2%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.45