Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
LV perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play-0.192
- 42.9%Success rate38.6%
- +0.099EPA / dropback-0.130
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.304
- 8.6%Explosive rate6.7%
- -1.30CPOE-0.91
- 39.6%Third-down rate34.1%
- 56.3%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 2.06Points / drive1.25
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. LV are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 22/30 | 207 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jaxson Dart | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 11 | 14 | 113 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 20/28 | 176 | 1 | 2 |
| Kenny Pickett | 2/2 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Mayer | 9 | 10 | 89 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Shedrick Jackson | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.2%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.45