Closing spread
NYG -7.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. OAK are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 12/24 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 28 | 203 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.81
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.