Closing spread
NYG -7.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. OAK are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 12:24 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:47 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 8:26 | 2 | 95 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:59 | 10 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NYG | Q1 3:33 | 10 | 63 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 12:37 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 10–7 |
| NYG | Q2 10:35 | 3 | 82 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| LV | Q2 9:41 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 17–7 |
| NYG | Q2 7:22 | 10 | 62 | Field goal | 20–7 |
| LV | Q2 1:56 | 9 | 62 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| NYG | Q2 0:19 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 20–14 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–14 |
| LV | Q3 13:36 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 20–14 |
| NYG | Q3 12:38 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 20–14 |
| LV | Q3 10:16 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 20–14 |
| NYG | Q3 8:05 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 20–14 |
| LV | Q3 6:13 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–14 |
| NYG | Q3 4:16 | 2 | 3 | Touchdown | 27–14 |
| LV | Q3 3:28 | 2 | 64 | Touchdown | 27–21 |
| NYG | Q3 2:28 | 6 | 23 | Field goal | 30–21 |
| LV | Q4 14:48 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 30–21 |
| NYG | Q4 12:22 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 30–21 |
| LV | Q4 9:19 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 30–21 |
| NYG | Q4 7:10 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 30–21 |
| LV | Q4 5:37 | 11 | 43 | Turnover on downs | 30–21 |
| NYG | Q4 2:31 | 2 | 11 | End of half | 30–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 12/24 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 28 | 203 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.81
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.