Closing spread
OAK -10
Total
43
Model margin
+1.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Giants
- OutJonathan CasillasLBNeck· DNP
- DoubtfulJustin PughGBack· Limited
- QuestionableDamon HarrisonDTElbow· DNP
- QuestionableEli AppleCBHip· DNP
- LimitedB.J. GoodsonLBAnkle
Raiders
- OutAmari CooperWRConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableCordarrelle PattersonWRHip· Limited
- QuestionableCory JamesLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableDavid AmersonCBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableGabe JacksonGAnkle· Limited
- DNPBruce IrvinLBNot Injury Related
- DNPKhalil MackDENot Injury Related
- DNPMarshawn LynchRBNot Injury Related
Win probability
- Raiders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. OAK are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:57 | 3 | 60 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 12:26 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 10:30 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 8:19 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 6:46 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 5:22 | 11 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 0:06 | 6 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 7–7 |
| NYG | Q2 11:45 | 5 | 28 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 8:53 | 11 | 52 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| NYG | Q2 3:37 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 1:56 | 6 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 7–10 |
| NYG | Q2 0:46 | 2 | -7 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 0:35 | 2 | 14 | End of half | 7–10 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–10 |
| NYG | Q3 13:48 | 8 | 26 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LV | Q3 8:53 | 7 | 50 | Punt | 7–10 |
| NYG | Q3 5:53 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LV | Q3 4:11 | 6 | 31 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| NYG | Q3 0:45 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LV | Q4 15:00 | 8 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| NYG | Q4 10:18 | 9 | 88 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| LV | Q4 5:16 | 4 | 68 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| NYG | Q4 3:23 | 8 | 41 | Field goal | 17–24 |
| LV | Q4 1:38 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 17–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 21/34 | 212 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orleans Darkwa | 14 | 32 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 7 | 8 | 99 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Tavarres King | 4 | 9 | 23 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Roger Lewis | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.42
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.04
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.88
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.