Closing spread
OAK -10
Total
43
Model margin
+1.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. OAK are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 21/34 | 212 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orleans Darkwa | 14 | 32 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 7 | 8 | 99 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Tavarres King | 4 | 9 | 23 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Roger Lewis | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.42
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.04
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.88
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.