Closing spread
LV -3
Total
47
Model margin
-0.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play-0.141
- 45.2%Success rate40.2%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.146
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.133
- 9.2%Explosive rate5.7%
- +1.92CPOE-4.62
- 36.8%Third-down rate35.9%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
- 1.87Points / drive1.20
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. NYG are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 30/46 | 296 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 13 | 76 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 7 | 11 | 92 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 6 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 7 | 9 | 49 | 1 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 15/20 | 110 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 21 | 99 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Kenny Golladay | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.71
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin-0.65