2001 · Week 12
Final / OT
Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -5
Total
35
Model margin
+1.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.090
- 39.6%Success rate39.0%
- +0.010EPA / dropback-0.080
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.106
- 6.6%Explosive rate6.9%
- 35.3%Third-down rate37.7%
- 42.8%Red-zone TD rate46.6%
- 1.43Points / drive0.98
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.085EPA / play allowed-0.112
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 15 | 48 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TB | Q1 6:50 | 20 | 58 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| CIN | Q2 10:35 | 3 | -4 | Opp touchdown | 7–3 |
| TB | Q2 9:17 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q2 9:17 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 7–3 |
| TB | Q2 6:04 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q2 1:53 | 8 | 37 | Punt | 7–3 |
| TB | Q2 0:02 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 7–3 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 53 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| CIN | Q3 11:54 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–3 |
| TB | Q3 10:44 | 9 | 37 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| CIN | Q3 6:45 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 10–3 |
| TB | Q3 4:58 | 7 | 16 | Turnover on downs | 10–3 |
| CIN | Q3 1:19 | 6 | 11 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| TB | Q4 14:39 | 5 | 21 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| CIN | Q4 12:29 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 13–3 |
| TB | Q4 10:41 | 7 | 28 | Missed field goal | 13–3 |
| CIN | Q4 6:23 | 6 | 36 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| TB | Q4 4:29 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 13–6 |
| CIN | Q4 2:37 | 15 | 59 | Touchdown | 13–13 |
| TB | Q4 0:08 | 1 | -3 | End of half | 13–13 |
| TB | OT | 8 | 27 | Punt | 13–13 |
| CIN | OT | 1 | -1 | Turnover | 16–13 |
| TB | OT | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 16–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 26/33 | 231 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 21 | 42 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 7 | 9 | 85 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 7 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Jameel Cook | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Todd Yoder | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Frank Murphy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 19/38 | 144 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 23 | 79 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Warrick | 5 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 4 | 9 | 30 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.78