2006 · Week 6

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

13·14

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Bruce Gradkowski

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CIN -4.5

Total

44

Model margin

+0.5est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.044EPA / play-0.186
  • 45.3%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.138EPA / dropback-0.208
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.149
  • 9.2%Explosive rate6.4%
  • +5.38CPOE-4.51
  • 36.8%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate43.2%
  • 1.98Points / drive0.82
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. TB are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1TB @ CIN27–33CIN
2022 · W15CIN @ TB34–23CIN
2018 · W8TB @ CIN34–37CIN
2014 · W13CIN @ TB14–13CIN
2010 · W5TB @ CIN24–21TB
2002 · W4TB @ CIN35–7TB
2001 · W12TB @ CIN16–13TB

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer24/3726110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rudi Johnson17523.10
Carson Palmer210.50
T.J. Houshmandzadeh100.00

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bruce Gradkowski25/4418421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cadillac Williams19944.90
Bruce Gradkowski4194.80
Michael Pittman11111.00
Joey Galloway122.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.49
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.51