2006 · Week 6
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
CIN -4.5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play-0.186
- 45.3%Success rate37.6%
- +0.138EPA / dropback-0.208
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.149
- 9.2%Explosive rate6.4%
- +5.38CPOE-4.51
- 36.8%Third-down rate37.4%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate43.2%
- 1.98Points / drive0.82
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. TB are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 13:26 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 10:18 | 9 | 31 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 5:47 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 3:40 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q2 14:49 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q2 13:02 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q2 12:00 | 8 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| TB | Q2 9:08 | 8 | 28 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q2 4:29 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TB | Q2 3:10 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q2 1:52 | 7 | 38 | Turnover on downs | 7–0 |
| TB | Q2 0:35 | 3 | 6 | End of half | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TB | Q3 12:25 | 11 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CIN | Q3 6:37 | 10 | 59 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| TB | Q3 2:29 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 10–7 |
| CIN | Q3 0:01 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–7 |
| TB | Q4 13:42 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–7 |
| CIN | Q4 12:08 | 4 | 51 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| TB | Q4 10:34 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 13–7 |
| CIN | Q4 6:33 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–7 |
| TB | Q4 4:21 | 9 | 49 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| CIN | Q4 0:35 | 4 | 28 | Missed field goal | 13–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 24/37 | 261 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 17 | 52 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Gradkowski | 25/44 | 184 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 19 | 94 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.51