2014 · Week 13
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
CIN -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.111
- 42.0%Success rate38.5%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.020EPA / rush-0.190
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.9%
- +0.60CPOE-1.50
- 39.7%Third-down rate36.6%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.86Points / drive1.33
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. TB are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 19/27 | 176 | 1 | 3 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1/1 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 13 | 40 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 |
| James Wright | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wright | 3 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 4 | 8 | 57 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 5 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 15/29 | 190 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 18 | 58 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Sims | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Robert Herron | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.75
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.74