2014 · Week 13

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

14·13

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh McCown

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CIN -6

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.019EPA / play-0.111
  • 42.0%Success rate38.5%
  • -0.017EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.020EPA / rush-0.190
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +0.60CPOE-1.50
  • 39.7%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.33
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. TB are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1TB @ CIN27–33CIN
2022 · W15CIN @ TB34–23CIN
2018 · W8TB @ CIN34–37CIN
2010 · W5TB @ CIN24–21TB
2006 · W6CIN @ TB13–14TB
2002 · W4TB @ CIN35–7TB
2001 · W12TB @ CIN16–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–TB
CINQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
TBQ1 14:4634Field goal0–3
CINQ1 12:243-1Punt0–3
TBQ1 10:20833Punt0–3
CINQ1 5:24540Punt0–3
TBQ1 2:151068Touchdown0–10
CINQ2 12:001053Turnover0–10
TBQ2 6:3637Punt0–10
CINQ2 5:11960Touchdown7–10
TBQ2 1:08312Turnover7–10
CINQ2 0:4624Turnover7–10
TBQ2 0:11211End of half7–10
TBQ3 15:00411Punt7–10
CINQ3 13:06623Punt7–10
TBQ3 9:1931Punt7–10
CINQ3 7:191063Touchdown14–10
TBQ3 2:04412Field goal14–13
CINQ4 14:1233Punt14–13
TBQ4 12:0934Punt14–13
CINQ4 10:2544Punt14–13
TBQ4 8:23943Punt14–13
CINQ4 4:01740Punt14–13
TBQ4 2:011157Turnover on downs14–13
CINQ4 0:0100End of half14–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton19/2717613
Mohamed Sanu1/11100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard10494.90
Jeremy Hill13403.10
Mohamed Sanu11010.00
Andy Dalton372.31
James Wright166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Wright35590
A.J. Green48571
Jermaine Gresham55330
Mohamed Sanu23190
Jeremy Hill44120
Giovani Bernard1140
Ryan Hewitt1130

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown15/2919001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin18583.21
Bobby Rainey11111.00
Charles Sims561.20
Josh McCown100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Sims44490
Mike Evans49490
Bobby Rainey22410
Vincent Jackson24240
Cameron Brate11170
Louis Murphy1570
Doug Martin1130
Robert Herron0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.75
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.74