2022 · Week 15

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

34·23

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

-0.0est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.081EPA / play-0.030
  • 47.8%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.052
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.208
  • 7.4%Explosive rate6.5%
  • +2.74CPOE+0.30
  • 47.3%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.63
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. TB are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1TB @ CIN27–33CIN
2018 · W8TB @ CIN34–37CIN
2014 · W13CIN @ TB14–13CIN
2010 · W5TB @ CIN24–21TB
2006 · W6CIN @ TB13–14TB
2002 · W4TB @ CIN35–7TB
2001 · W12TB @ CIN16–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–TB
CINQ1 15:00535Turnover0–0
TBQ1 12:261267Field goal0–3
CINQ1 6:0630Punt0–3
TBQ1 3:581272Touchdown0–10
CINQ2 14:113-6Punt0–10
TBQ2 12:27737Missed field goal0–10
CINQ2 7:5837Punt0–10
TBQ2 6:301085Touchdown0–17
CINQ2 1:39547Field goal3–17
TBQ3 15:0049Turnover on downs3–17
CINQ3 13:31413Field goal6–17
TBQ3 12:04626Turnover6–17
CINQ3 9:36826Touchdown12–17
TBQ3 5:423-8Turnover12–17
CINQ3 4:56513Touchdown20–17
TBQ3 2:40313Turnover20–17
CINQ3 1:18839Touchdown27–17
TBQ4 12:45511Turnover27–17
CINQ4 11:4635Punt27–17
TBQ4 10:5039Punt27–17
CINQ4 9:181460Touchdown34–17
TBQ4 2:21975Touchdown34–23
CINQ4 0:4900End of half34–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow27/3920041

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samaje Perine7243.40
Joe Mixon11211.90
Joe Burrow382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase713601
Tyler Boyd55351
Mitchell Wilcox33341
Joe Mixon56330
Tee Higgins58331
Trenton Irwin1250
Samaje Perine1100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady30/4431232

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette10444.40
Rachaad White11383.50
Deven Thompkins199.00
Tom Brady210.50
Giovani Bernard100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans59830
Chris Godwin Jr.88831
Russell Gage812592
Leonard Fournette44300
Cameron Brate25250
Cade Otton11200
Deven Thompkins1170
Rachaad White1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.0%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.02