2022 · Week 15
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
-0.0est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play-0.030
- 47.8%Success rate44.0%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.208
- 7.4%Explosive rate6.5%
- +2.74CPOE+0.30
- 47.3%Third-down rate38.1%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 2.27Points / drive1.63
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. TB are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 27/39 | 200 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 7 | 13 | 60 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 8 | 33 | 1 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 30/44 | 312 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 5 | 9 | 83 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 8 | 8 | 83 | 1 |
| Russell Gage | 8 | 12 | 59 | 2 |
| Leonard Fournette | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.02