2018 · Week 8
Final
Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 55°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Total
55
Model margin
+0.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.013
- 44.9%Success rate43.6%
- +0.165EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.229EPA / rush-0.105
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.1%
- +3.11CPOE-3.54
- 46.7%Third-down rate36.9%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 1.93Points / drive1.95
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 18/35 | 276 | 1 | 4 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 11/15 | 194 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 19 | 85 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 13 | 179 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 7 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 8 | 68 | 1 |
| O.J. Howard | 4 | 4 | 68 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 2 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 21/34 | 280 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 21 | 123 | 5.9 | 2 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mark Walton | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 9 | 10 | 138 | 1 |
| A.J. Green | 5 | 7 | 76 | 1 |
| Jordan Franks | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Mark Walton | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Lengel | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.76