2018 · Week 8

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

34·37

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 55°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

Total

55

Model margin

+0.8est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapBengals
  • +0.045EPA / play+0.013
  • 44.9%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.165EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.229EPA / rush-0.105
  • 9.1%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +3.11CPOE-3.54
  • 46.7%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.95
  • 3.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1TB @ CIN27–33CIN
2022 · W15CIN @ TB34–23CIN
2014 · W13CIN @ TB14–13CIN
2010 · W5TB @ CIN24–21TB
2006 · W6CIN @ TB13–14TB
2002 · W4TB @ CIN35–7TB
2001 · W12TB @ CIN16–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CIN
CINQ1 15:00750Turnover on downs0–0
TBQ1 12:441061Turnover0–0
CINQ1 7:273-2Punt0–0
TBQ1 6:0837Punt0–0
CINQ1 4:26463Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 3:04648Turnover0–7
CINQ1 0:011458Touchdown0–14
TBQ2 10:0464Punt0–14
CINQ2 6:38468Touchdown0–21
TBQ2 5:07260Touchdown6–21
CINQ2 4:36770Touchdown6–27
TBQ2 2:341363Field goal9–27
CINQ2 0:0300End of half9–27
TBQ3 15:001369Touchdown16–27
CINQ3 9:1832Punt16–27
TBQ3 8:30727Turnover16–27
CINQ3 5:2639Punt16–27
TBQ3 3:4330Opp touchdown16–34
TBQ3 2:10865Field goal19–34
CINQ4 12:5432Punt19–34
TBQ4 11:16378Touchdown26–34
CINQ4 9:5736Punt26–34
TBQ4 7:4836Punt26–34
CINQ4 6:24831Punt26–34
TBQ4 3:161088Touchdown34–34
CINQ4 1:05546Field goal34–37

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston18/3527614
Ryan Fitzpatrick11/1519420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber19854.51
Ryan Fitzpatrick11818.00
Jameis Winston3186.00
DeSean Jackson144.00
Jacquizz Rodgers144.00
Ronald Jones2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans6131791
Adam Humphries710760
DeSean Jackson38681
O.J. Howard44681
Chris Godwin Jr.27320
Jacquizz Rodgers44250
Cameron Brate12130
Justin Watson1150
Ronald Jones1140

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton21/3428020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon211235.92
Andy Dalton3103.30
Mark Walton273.50
Tyler Boyd1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd9101381
A.J. Green57761
Jordan Franks11320
Joe Mixon34150
Mark Walton11100
Alex Erickson1450
Matt Lengel1140
C.J. Uzomah0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.76