2026 · Week 1
Final
Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 85°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+6.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play+0.001
- 51.8%Success rate47.6%
- -0.168EPA / dropback-0.030
- +0.118EPA / rush+0.050
- 5.4%Explosive rate11.1%
- +14.02CPOE+6.35
- 50.0%Third-down rate57.1%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate40.0%
- 1.44Points / drive2.11
- 7.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 23/28 | 216 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka | 5 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 7 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Ted Hurst III | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tez Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 25/35 | 254 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 16 | 56 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dohnte Meyers | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gesicki | 5 | 7 | 78 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 5 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Dohnte Meyers | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.4%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.96
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.18