2026 · Week 1

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

27·33

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 85°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapBengals
  • -0.081EPA / play+0.108
  • 40.9%Success rate48.7%
  • -0.130EPA / dropback+0.206
  • -0.011EPA / rush-0.087
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -2.76CPOE+7.31
  • 40.9%Third-down rate50.7%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate64.8%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.52
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W15CIN @ TB34–23CIN
2018 · W8TB @ CIN34–37CIN
2014 · W13CIN @ TB14–13CIN
2010 · W5TB @ CIN24–21TB
2006 · W6CIN @ TB13–14TB
2002 · W4TB @ CIN35–7TB
2001 · W12TB @ CIN16–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CIN
TBQ1 15:001151Field goal3–0
CINQ1 9:0934Punt3–0
TBQ1 7:383-6Opp touchdown3–7
TBQ1 6:1833Turnover3–7
CINQ1 5:22733Touchdown3–14
TBQ1 1:48950Turnover3–14
CINQ2 12:041280Touchdown3–21
TBQ2 5:32770Touchdown10–21
CINQ2 1:49966Field goal10–24
TBQ2 0:0600End of half10–24
CINQ3 15:00736Field goal10–27
TBQ3 10:031033Field goal13–27
CINQ3 3:4135Opp touchdown20–27
CINQ3 2:16838Field goal20–30
TBQ4 14:04626Turnover20–30
CINQ4 10:31735Field goal20–33
TBQ4 5:19756Touchdown27–33
CINQ4 3:19755End of half27–33

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield23/2821600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving8455.61
Baker Mayfield5306.01
Kenny Gainwell5153.00
Chris Godwin Jr.133.00
Tez Johnson1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emeka Egbuka56630
Bucky Irving77480
Chris Godwin Jr.44400
Ted Hurst III33360
Cade Otton35260
Kenny Gainwell1130
Tez Johnson0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow25/3525411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown16563.51
Samaje Perine5204.00
Joe Burrow5204.00
Dohnte Meyers11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Gesicki57781
Tee Higgins36590
Samaje Perine33300
Chase Brown56220
Drew Sample33190
Dohnte Meyers11180
Ja'Marr Chase24120
Andrei Iosivas23120
Tanner Hudson1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.0%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.50
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.72