2010 · Week 5

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

24·21

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 81°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

CIN -6.5

Total

38

Model margin

-0.0est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapBengals
  • +0.046EPA / play-0.042
  • 42.0%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.055
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.191
  • 10.0%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +2.31CPOE+0.88
  • 42.5%Third-down rate39.8%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.45
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1TB @ CIN27–33CIN
2022 · W15CIN @ TB34–23CIN
2018 · W8TB @ CIN34–37CIN
2014 · W13CIN @ TB14–13CIN
2006 · W6CIN @ TB13–14TB
2002 · W4TB @ CIN35–7TB
2001 · W12TB @ CIN16–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CIN
CINQ1 15:00622Punt0–0
TBQ1 11:2269Punt0–0
CINQ1 8:53419Punt0–0
TBQ1 7:08413Punt0–0
CINQ1 5:11355Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 4:09741Punt0–7
CINQ2 15:0020Opp touchdown7–7
CINQ2 14:32519Punt7–7
TBQ2 11:31261Turnover7–7
CINQ2 10:2634Punt7–7
TBQ2 8:41952Turnover7–7
CINQ2 2:52969Field goal7–10
TBQ2 0:3300End of half7–10
TBQ3 15:00836Punt7–10
CINQ3 11:52421Punt7–10
TBQ3 10:381065Touchdown14–10
CINQ3 5:28855Field goal14–13
TBQ3 1:2900Touchdown14–13
CINQ3 1:24729Touchdown14–21
TBQ4 12:12640Punt14–21
CINQ4 8:51622Punt14–21
TBQ4 4:5134Punt14–21
CINQ4 3:1732Turnover14–21
TBQ4 2:18550Touchdown21–21
CINQ4 1:26641Turnover21–21
TBQ4 0:14121Field goal24–21
CINQ4 0:0100Turnover24–21

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman20/3328011
Josh Johnson2/2400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Earnest Graham36521.71
Cadillac Williams11333.00
Josh Freeman3206.70
Kareem Huggins144.00
LeGarrette Blount430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams711991
Kellen Winslow69750
Sammie Stroughter33390
Micheal Spurlock33350
Arrelious Benn23250
John Gilmore11110
Cadillac Williams0300

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer21/3620923

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson231446.30
Bernard Scott242.00
Carson Palmer133.00
Brian Leonard2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens7121021
Andre Caldwell47330
Jermaine Gresham46241
Chad Johnson36200
Cedric Benson23190
Brian Leonard11110
Jerome Simpson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

4.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.0%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.95
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-0.02