2010 · Week 5
Final
Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 81°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
CIN -6.5
Total
38
Model margin
-0.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play-0.042
- 42.0%Success rate44.3%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.191
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.6%
- +2.31CPOE+0.88
- 42.5%Third-down rate39.8%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.88Points / drive1.45
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 20/33 | 280 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh Johnson | 2/2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 3 | 65 | 21.7 | 1 |
| Cadillac Williams | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Kareem Huggins | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 7 | 11 | 99 | 1 |
| Kellen Winslow | 6 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 21/36 | 209 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 23 | 144 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 7 | 12 | 102 | 1 |
| Andre Caldwell | 4 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 6 | 24 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.02