2002 · Week 4
Final
Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
TB -6.5
Total
33.5
Model margin
-2.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.063
- 42.2%Success rate43.4%
- +0.019EPA / dropback-0.085
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.027
- 6.9%Explosive rate6.3%
- 35.3%Third-down rate39.3%
- 41.7%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.22Points / drive1.04
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.206EPA / play allowed+0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 19/30 | 277 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 19 | 54 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan McCardell | 4 | 6 | 108 | 1 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 5 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Rickey Dudley | 1 | 2 | 35 | 1 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akili Smith | 12/33 | 117 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 21 | 59 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Akili Smith | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Warrick | 4 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Matt Schobel | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.7%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.43
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-2.75