2002 · Week 4

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

35·7

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Akili Smith

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

TB -6.5

Total

33.5

Model margin

-2.8est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapBengals
  • -0.043EPA / play-0.063
  • 42.2%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.019EPA / dropback-0.085
  • -0.146EPA / rush-0.027
  • 6.9%Explosive rate6.3%
  • 35.3%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 41.7%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.04
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.206EPA / play allowed+0.080

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

CIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1TB @ CIN27–33CIN
2022 · W15CIN @ TB34–23CIN
2018 · W8TB @ CIN34–37CIN
2014 · W13CIN @ TB14–13CIN
2010 · W5TB @ CIN24–21TB
2006 · W6CIN @ TB13–14TB
2001 · W12TB @ CIN16–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CIN
TBQ1 15:00642Turnover0–0
CINQ1 11:36520Punt0–0
TBQ1 8:45410Punt0–0
CINQ1 6:4233Punt0–0
TBQ1 5:46732Opp touchdown0–7
CINQ1 2:2300Opp touchdown0–7
TBQ1 2:23566Touchdown7–7
CINQ2 14:53610Punt7–7
TBQ2 11:3437Punt7–7
CINQ2 9:2935Punt7–7
TBQ2 8:13270Touchdown14–7
CINQ2 7:3430Punt14–7
TBQ2 7:00718Punt14–7
CINQ2 3:2835Punt14–7
TBQ2 1:5436Punt20–7
CINQ2 1:0110Opp touchdown21–7
TBQ2 0:5200Opp touchdown21–7
CINQ2 0:5235Punt21–7
CINQ3 15:0033Punt21–7
TBQ3 13:17537Touchdown28–7
CINQ3 10:4639Punt28–7
TBQ3 9:2134Punt28–7
CINQ3 7:03726Missed field goal28–7
TBQ3 2:4210Turnover28–7
CINQ3 2:3689Turnover on downs28–7
TBQ4 13:44925Punt28–7
CINQ4 9:25837Turnover28–7
TBQ4 6:47746Touchdown35–7
CINQ4 3:081036End of half35–7

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson19/3027732

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman19542.80
Aaron Stecker11414.00
Rob Johnson144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan McCardell461081
Keyshawn Johnson59560
Rickey Dudley12351
Ken Dilger23331
Michael Pittman56270
Joe Jurevicius12120

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Akili Smith12/3311701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon21592.80
Akili Smith451.30
Brandon Bennett200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Peter Warrick46510
Brandon Bennett45270
T.J. Houshmandzadeh23200
Nicolas Luchey11150
Matt Schobel1140
Ron Dugans0400
Chad Johnson01000

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.7%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.43
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-2.75