Closing spread
IND -4
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play+0.005
- 39.3%Success rate45.6%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.069
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.6%
- 40.9%Third-down rate41.4%
- 42.1%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
- 1.45Points / drive1.62
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.060EPA / play allowed+0.059
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 13:45 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 12:17 | 5 | 84 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 9:35 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 8:11 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 5:36 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 3:02 | 13 | 96 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| ATL | Q2 10:50 | 7 | 24 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| IND | Q2 7:53 | 5 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| ATL | Q2 5:06 | 10 | 73 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| IND | Q2 1:05 | 5 | 56 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| ATL | Q2 0:19 | 1 | 14 | End of half | 14–28 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 56 | Turnover on downs | 14–28 |
| IND | Q3 11:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–28 |
| ATL | Q3 10:31 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–28 |
| IND | Q3 9:31 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–28 |
| ATL | Q3 8:30 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 17–28 |
| IND | Q3 7:06 | 6 | 43 | Turnover | 17–28 |
| ATL | Q3 3:35 | 11 | 42 | Field goal | 20–28 |
| IND | Q4 13:32 | 5 | 62 | Touchdown | 20–35 |
| ATL | Q4 11:06 | 5 | 47 | Touchdown | 27–35 |
| IND | Q4 9:32 | 4 | 32 | Field goal | 27–38 |
| ATL | Q4 7:30 | 7 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 27–38 |
| IND | Q4 4:49 | 8 | 55 | Field goal | 27–41 |
| ATL | Q4 1:51 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 27–41 |
| IND | Q4 1:26 | 3 | -3 | End of half | 27–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 23/39 | 249 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Smith | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Martin | 7 | 12 | 84 | 1 |
| Terance Mathis | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 2 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Maurice Smith | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/35 | 325 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 29 | 177 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Pollard | 5 | 7 | 101 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison | 5 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Trevor Insley | 3 | 3 | 53 | 1 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.74