Closing spread
IND -4
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play+0.005
- 39.3%Success rate45.6%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.069
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.6%
- 40.9%Third-down rate41.4%
- 42.1%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
- 1.45Points / drive1.62
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.060EPA / play allowed+0.059
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 23/39 | 249 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Smith | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Martin | 7 | 12 | 84 | 1 |
| Terance Mathis | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 2 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Maurice Smith | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/35 | 325 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 29 | 177 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Pollard | 5 | 7 | 101 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison | 5 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Trevor Insley | 3 | 3 | 53 | 1 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.74