Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
44
Model margin
+3.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.089
- 41.5%Success rate41.5%
- +0.030EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.171
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.7%
- -3.92CPOE-3.52
- 34.4%Third-down rate40.2%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 1.78Points / drive1.58
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. ATL are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 20/37 | 201 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 18 | 43 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Gardner Minshew | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylen Granson | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Will Mallory | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 6 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| D.J. Montgomery | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 23/33 | 229 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 12 | 72 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 9 | 69 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 7 | 10 | 50 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Drake London | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.26
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.64
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.00