2023 · Week 16

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Gardner Minshew

10·29

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Taylor Heinicke

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

44

Model margin

+3.0est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.025EPA / play-0.089
  • 41.5%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.030EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.108EPA / rush-0.171
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -3.92CPOE-3.52
  • 34.4%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.58
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. ATL are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10ATL @ IND25–31IND
2019 · W3ATL @ IND24–27IND
2015 · W11IND @ ATL24–21IND
2011 · W9ATL @ IND31–7ATL
2007 · W12IND @ ATL31–13IND
2003 · W15ATL @ IND7–38IND
2001 · W14ATL @ IND27–41IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–ATL
INDQ1 15:001462Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 9:24575Touchdown7–7
INDQ1 7:42934Punt7–7
ATLQ1 2:10423Punt7–7
INDQ2 14:53515Punt7–7
ATLQ2 12:06312Punt7–7
INDQ2 10:1150Punt7–7
ATLQ2 9:361368Field goal7–10
INDQ2 3:233-2Punt7–10
ATLQ2 1:46646Field goal7–13
INDQ2 0:0500End of half7–13
ATLQ3 15:00879Touchdown7–20
INDQ3 11:131265Field goal10–20
ATLQ3 4:231152Field goal10–23
INDQ4 14:06937Turnover on downs10–23
ATLQ4 10:0237Punt10–23
INDQ4 8:3330Turnover10–23
ATLQ4 7:57533Field goal10–26
INDQ4 5:464-7Turnover on downs10–26
ATLQ4 4:49511Field goal10–29
INDQ4 1:57659End of half10–29

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew20/3720101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor18432.41
Gardner Minshew4317.80
Tyler Goodson11515.00
Trey Sermon231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kylen Granson57620
Will Mallory44470
Josh Downs69390
Alec Pierce37300
Tyler Goodson12150
D.J. Montgomery1480
Mo Alie-Cox0100
Jonathan Taylor0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke23/3322910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson12726.00
Tyler Allgeier9697.71
Cordarrelle Patterson7263.70
Taylor Heinicke2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bijan Robinson710500
Kyle Pitts34491
Drake London34390
Jonnu Smith46320
Tyler Allgeier11190
Scott Miller11150
Van Jefferson13130
Cordarrelle Patterson2270
KhaDarel Hodge1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.64
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.00