Closing spread
IND -13.5
Total
41
Model margin
-2.8est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.139EPA / play-0.148
- 48.8%Success rate37.3%
- +0.222EPA / dropback-0.138
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.167
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- +1.87CPOE-3.93
- 49.3%Third-down rate36.4%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 2.49Points / drive1.07
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. ATL are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/32 | 272 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenton Keith | 17 | 74 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 1 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 14/30 | 155 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 17 | 70 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.6%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.81