Closing spread
IND -6.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.008EPA / play+0.083
- 44.5%Success rate46.6%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.104
- -0.073EPA / rush+0.052
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.1%
- -3.36CPOE+0.62
- 33.5%Third-down rate43.0%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 1.82Points / drive2.74
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 12/28 | 177 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 17 | 84 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 11 | 57 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 6 | 8 | 104 | 1 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 8 | 17 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| David Sills | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 19/26 | 255 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 32 | 244 | 7.6 | 3 |
| Daniel Jones | 7 | 53 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Warren | 8 | 10 | 99 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 4 | 7 | 84 | 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.64