2025 · Week 10

Final / OT

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Penix

25·31

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · grass · 46°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

IND -6.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapColts
  • -0.008EPA / play+0.083
  • 44.5%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.104
  • -0.073EPA / rush+0.052
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -3.36CPOE+0.62
  • 33.5%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 1.82Points / drive2.74
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16IND @ ATL10–29ATL
2019 · W3ATL @ IND24–27IND
2015 · W11IND @ ATL24–21IND
2011 · W9ATL @ IND31–7ATL
2007 · W12IND @ ATL31–13IND
2003 · W15ATL @ IND7–38IND
2001 · W14ATL @ IND27–41IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–IND
INDQ1 15:00845Turnover on downs0–0
ATLQ1 10:5843Turnover0–0
INDQ1 9:15223Touchdown0–6
ATLQ1 8:36661Touchdown7–6
INDQ1 6:07265Touchdown7–13
ATLQ1 5:19628Punt7–13
INDQ1 2:391168Missed field goal7–13
ATLQ2 10:4031Punt7–13
INDQ2 8:5339Punt7–13
ATLQ2 6:54655Touchdown14–13
INDQ2 3:25725Turnover14–13
ATLQ2 0:0800End of half14–13
ATLQ3 15:00644Field goal17–13
INDQ3 12:2643Turnover17–13
ATLQ3 10:2132Punt17–13
INDQ3 9:401575Turnover on downs17–13
ATLQ3 0:47521Punt17–13
INDQ4 14:28836Field goal17–16
ATLQ4 9:00518Punt17–16
INDQ4 6:55291Touchdown17–22
ATLQ4 6:02971Touchdown25–22
INDQ4 1:44722Field goal25–25
ATLQ4 0:2520End of half25–25
ATLOT6-13Punt25–25
INDOT757Touchdown25–31

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.12/2817710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson17844.90
Tyler Allgeier11575.22
Michael Penix Jr.1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London681041
Kyle Pitts25380
Darnell Mooney18170
Charlie Woerner11140
Bijan Robinson2240
David Sills0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones19/2625511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor322447.63
Daniel Jones7537.60
Ashton Dulin12222.00
Tyler Goodson144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Warren810990
Alec Pierce47841
Jonathan Taylor33420
Michael Pittman22190
Ameer Abdullah1180
Josh Downs1230
Mo Alie-Cox0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

4.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.64