2019 · Week 3

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

24·27

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -1

Total

48

Model margin

+1.9est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapColts
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.009
  • 44.5%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.159EPA / rush+0.022
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +2.32CPOE-3.86
  • 41.8%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.94
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10ATL @ IND25–31IND
2023 · W16IND @ ATL10–29ATL
2015 · W11IND @ ATL24–21IND
2011 · W9ATL @ IND31–7ATL
2007 · W12IND @ ATL31–13IND
2003 · W15ATL @ IND7–38IND
2001 · W14ATL @ IND27–41IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–IND
INDQ1 15:00839Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 9:30747Punt0–3
INDQ1 5:42888Touchdown0–10
ATLQ1 1:25547Turnover0–10
INDQ2 14:111589Field goal0–13
ATLQ2 5:51859Field goal3–13
INDQ2 2:201241Touchdown3–20
ATLQ2 0:0900End of half3–20
ATLQ3 15:00875Touchdown10–20
INDQ3 10:303-5Punt10–20
ATLQ3 8:471788Touchdown17–20
INDQ4 13:511270Touchdown17–27
ATLQ4 8:401482Touchdown24–27
INDQ4 4:11759End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan29/3430431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman16885.50
Matt Ryan231.50
Mohamed Sanu122.00
Ito Smith100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones891281
Mohamed Sanu66750
Austin Hooper67662
Luke Stocker34120
Devonta Freeman3470
Justin Hardy1160
Calvin Ridley1160
Kenjon Barner1140

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett28/3731020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack16744.61
Jacoby Brissett341.30
Nyheim Hines231.50
Jordan Wilkins3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton810651
Zach Pascal23531
Eric Ebron34470
Jack Doyle44460
Nyheim Hines34260
Mo Alie-Cox22250
Parris Campbell33240
Marlon Mack23140
Deon Cain13100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.95