Closing spread
IND -1
Total
48
Model margin
+1.9est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.009
- 44.5%Success rate44.5%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.159EPA / rush+0.022
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- +2.32CPOE-3.86
- 41.8%Third-down rate41.9%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 2.01Points / drive1.94
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 29/34 | 304 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 16 | 88 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 8 | 9 | 128 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 6 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 6 | 7 | 66 | 2 |
| Luke Stocker | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 28/37 | 310 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 16 | 74 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 8 | 10 | 65 | 1 |
| Zach Pascal | 2 | 3 | 53 | 1 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Deon Cain | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.95