Closing spread
ATL -6.5
Total
45
Model margin
-1.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play-0.129
- 43.6%Success rate39.3%
- +0.130EPA / dropback-0.096
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.182
- 9.6%Explosive rate6.8%
- +1.80CPOE-4.66
- 45.0%Third-down rate34.4%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate47.1%
- 1.86Points / drive1.05
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 14/24 | 275 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 19 | 71 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 3 | 4 | 131 | 2 |
| Roddy White | 4 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 6 | 36 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Painter | 13/27 | 98 | 0 | 1 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 4/6 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 16 | 70 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Delone Carter | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Painter | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Collie | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 2 | 7 | 6 | 0 |
| Brody Eldridge | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.20