2011 · Week 9

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

31·7

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Curtis Painter

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -6.5

Total

45

Model margin

-1.2est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapColts
  • +0.046EPA / play-0.129
  • 43.6%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.130EPA / dropback-0.096
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.182
  • 9.6%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +1.80CPOE-4.66
  • 45.0%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate47.1%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.05
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10ATL @ IND25–31IND
2023 · W16IND @ ATL10–29ATL
2019 · W3ATL @ IND24–27IND
2015 · W11IND @ ATL24–21IND
2007 · W12IND @ ATL31–13IND
2003 · W15ATL @ IND7–38IND
2001 · W14ATL @ IND27–41IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–IND
INDQ1 15:0026Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 14:16526Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 11:381047Turnover7–0
ATLQ1 8:05614Punt7–0
INDQ1 5:4034Punt7–0
ATLQ1 4:25379Touchdown14–0
INDQ1 2:511136Punt14–0
ATLQ2 13:29387Touchdown21–0
INDQ2 11:55829Punt21–0
ATLQ2 8:3521Opp touchdown21–7
ATLQ2 7:47513Punt21–7
INDQ2 5:3346Punt21–7
ATLQ2 3:56545Punt21–7
INDQ2 1:3136Punt21–7
ATLQ2 0:2830Punt21–7
ATLQ3 15:0079Punt21–7
INDQ3 11:1133Punt21–7
ATLQ3 10:221273Touchdown28–7
INDQ3 2:50310Punt28–7
ATLQ3 1:04962Field goal31–7
INDQ4 10:15420Punt31–7
ATLQ4 8:34614Punt31–7
INDQ4 4:10413Punt31–7
ATLQ4 3:1239Punt31–7
INDQ4 1:0626End of half31–7

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan14/2427531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner19713.71
Jacquizz Rodgers10444.40
Julio Jones23316.50
Matt Ryan200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones341312
Roddy White49760
Tony Gonzalez46361
Jacquizz Rodgers11160
Michael Palmer1290
Michael Turner1270

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Curtis Painter13/279801
Dan Orlovsky4/62000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown16704.40
Delone Carter482.00
Curtis Painter155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Collie45320
Reggie Wayne46300
Pierre Garcon36220
Dallas Clark25210
Jacob Tamme2760
Brody Eldridge1160
Donald Brown1310

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

3.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.8%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-1.20