Closing spread
IND -7.5
Total
48
Model margin
+2.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play+0.100
- 39.2%Success rate46.3%
- -0.213EPA / dropback+0.211
- +0.020EPA / rush-0.060
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- 29.8%Third-down rate42.2%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.36Points / drive2.34
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
- +0.030EPA / play allowed+0.000
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. IND are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 6/19 | 47 | 0 | 1 |
| Doug Johnson | 3/6 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Duckett | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| George Layne | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/30 | 290 | 5 | 0 |
| Brock Huard | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 20 | 126 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brock Huard | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.11