Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.083EPA / play+0.000
- 40.1%Success rate46.4%
- -0.023EPA / dropback+0.113
- -0.206EPA / rush-0.195
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- -4.10CPOE-0.01
- 40.5%Third-down rate47.3%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.47Points / drive1.77
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. ATL are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 23/32 | 213 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 5 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 5 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 4 | 4 | 20 | 2 |
| Griff Whalen | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 25/46 | 280 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 17 | 48 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 43 | 14.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Terron Ward | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 9 | 15 | 160 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 4 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 4 | 9 | 24 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 3 | 4 | 21 | 2 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Terron Ward | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.46