2015 · Week 11

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Matt Hasselbeck

24·21

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.083EPA / play+0.000
  • 40.1%Success rate46.4%
  • -0.023EPA / dropback+0.113
  • -0.206EPA / rush-0.195
  • 7.0%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -4.10CPOE-0.01
  • 40.5%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.77
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. ATL are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10ATL @ IND25–31IND
2023 · W16IND @ ATL10–29ATL
2019 · W3ATL @ IND24–27IND
2011 · W9ATL @ IND31–7ATL
2007 · W12IND @ ATL31–13IND
2003 · W15ATL @ IND7–38IND
2001 · W14ATL @ IND27–41IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–ATL
INDQ1 15:0020Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 14:0235Missed field goal0–0
INDQ1 13:24519Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 11:23443Turnover0–0
INDQ1 9:20615Punt0–0
ATLQ1 5:301370Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 0:0237Punt0–7
ATLQ2 13:121083Touchdown0–14
INDQ2 8:541384Touchdown7–14
ATLQ2 1:55626Punt7–14
INDQ2 0:3113End of half7–14
ATLQ3 15:001382Touchdown7–21
INDQ3 9:3839Punt7–21
ATLQ3 7:20614Punt7–21
INDQ3 5:081251Touchdown14–21
ATLQ3 0:1011Turnover14–21
INDQ4 15:0036Turnover14–21
ATLQ4 13:5534Punt14–21
INDQ4 12:46417Punt20–21
ATLQ4 10:1410Opp touchdown21–21
ATLQ4 10:07520Punt21–21
INDQ4 8:1839Punt21–21
ATLQ4 6:4336Punt21–21
INDQ4 4:54856Field goal24–21
ATLQ4 0:52721Turnover24–21

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck23/3221322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore14342.40
Ahmad Bradshaw9323.60
Matt Hasselbeck382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Gore55460
Coby Fleener35450
Donte Moncrief58410
T.Y. Hilton24210
Ahmad Bradshaw44202
Griff Whalen23200
Andre Johnson12130
Dwayne Allen1170

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan25/4628033

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman17482.80
Devonta Freeman34314.30
Matt Ryan273.50
Terron Ward221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones9151600
Leonard Hankerson47361
Roddy White49240
Patrick DiMarco34212
Jacob Tamme13160
Terron Ward34160
Justin Hardy1270
Tevin Coleman0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.15
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.46