Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.011
- 42.5%Success rate39.7%
- +0.197EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.193
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- 35.7%Third-down rate42.1%
- 63.7%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.76Points / drive1.49
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.110EPA / play allowed+0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54 points. TEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 20/38 | 199 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 10 | 11 | 1.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 6 | 12 | 82 | 1 |
| Antonio Freeman | 2 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| David Martin | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Corey Bradford | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 3 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 25/35 | 283 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skip Hicks | 17 | 142 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Eddie George | 15 | 26 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 8 | 12 | 107 | 1 |
| Frank Wycheck | 6 | 7 | 96 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Eddie Berlin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.20