2022 · Week 11

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

27·17

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 25°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapPackers
  • -0.066EPA / play+0.017
  • 41.2%Success rate46.2%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.035
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.009
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -0.94CPOE+0.52
  • 37.1%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 67.5%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 1.46Points / drive1.91
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 54 points. GB are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3GB @ TEN30–14GB
2020 · W16TEN @ GB14–40GB
2016 · W10GB @ TEN25–47TEN
2012 · W16TEN @ GB7–55GB
2008 · W9GB @ TEN16–19TEN
2004 · W5TEN @ GB48–27TEN
2001 · W14GB @ TEN20–26TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–GB
TENQ1 15:00883Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 10:3134Punt7–0
TENQ1 9:023-3Punt7–0
GBQ1 7:011175Touchdown7–6
TENQ2 15:001955Turnover on downs7–6
GBQ2 4:5434Punt7–6
TENQ2 3:211036Touchdown14–6
GBQ2 0:32313End of half14–6
GBQ3 15:001251Field goal14–9
TENQ3 8:25691Touchdown20–9
GBQ3 5:17769Touchdown20–17
TENQ3 2:04563Touchdown27–17
GBQ4 14:5533Punt27–17
TENQ4 13:45529Turnover27–17
GBQ4 10:4448Punt27–17
TENQ4 9:1339Punt27–17
GBQ4 6:5947Turnover on downs27–17
TENQ4 5:213-3Punt27–17
GBQ4 4:541037Turnover on downs27–17
TENQ4 2:04151End of half27–17

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill22/2733321
Derrick Henry2/2410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry28873.11
Dontrell Hilliard144.00
Ryan Tannehill3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Treylon Burks781110
Robert Woods67690
Derrick Henry22450
Austin Hooper44362
Chig Okonkwo12310
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine22280
Dontrell Hilliard11141
Geoff Swaim1130

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/3922720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones12403.30
AJ Dillon6132.20
Christian Watson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb66730
Allen Lazard511570
Christian Watson46482
Aaron Jones67200
Robert Tonyan24190
AJ Dillon11100
Sammy Watkins0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.75