Closing spread
GB -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play+0.017
- 41.2%Success rate46.2%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.009
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.7%
- -0.94CPOE+0.52
- 37.1%Third-down rate39.3%
- 67.5%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.46Points / drive1.91
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54 points. GB are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 22/27 | 333 | 2 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 2/2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 28 | 87 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treylon Burks | 7 | 8 | 111 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 6 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 4 | 36 | 2 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/39 | 227 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 6 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 5 | 11 | 57 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 4 | 6 | 48 | 2 |
| Aaron Jones | 6 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.75