Closing spread
GB -3
Total
52.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.189EPA / play+0.221
- 50.8%Success rate50.7%
- +0.297EPA / dropback+0.353
- +0.070EPA / rush+0.025
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- +2.16CPOE+6.90
- 47.4%Third-down rate50.7%
- 76.8%Red-zone TD rate86.4%
- 2.85Points / drive2.98
- 1.1%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54 points. GB are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 11/24 | 121 | 1 | 2 |
| Logan Woodside | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 23 | 98 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 55 | 18.3 | 1 |
| Darrynton Evans | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 7 | 30 | 1 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Cameron Batson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrynton Evans | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/25 | 231 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 21 | 124 | 5.9 | 2 |
| Aaron Jones | 10 | 94 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 11 | 12 | 142 | 3 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Dominique Dafney | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
49.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.81