2020 · Week 16

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

14·40

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 28°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

52.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapPackers
  • +0.189EPA / play+0.221
  • 50.8%Success rate50.7%
  • +0.297EPA / dropback+0.353
  • +0.070EPA / rush+0.025
  • 10.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +2.16CPOE+6.90
  • 47.4%Third-down rate50.7%
  • 76.8%Red-zone TD rate86.4%
  • 2.85Points / drive2.98
  • 1.1%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 54 points. GB are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3GB @ TEN30–14GB
2022 · W11TEN @ GB27–17TEN
2016 · W10GB @ TEN25–47TEN
2012 · W16TEN @ GB7–55GB
2008 · W9GB @ TEN16–19TEN
2004 · W5TEN @ GB48–27TEN
2001 · W14GB @ TEN20–26TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–GB
GBQ1 15:00860Touchdown0–6
TENQ1 9:55833Punt0–6
GBQ1 5:501175Touchdown0–12
TENQ2 14:5436Turnover0–12
GBQ2 13:30634Touchdown0–19
TENQ2 10:463-17Punt0–19
GBQ2 9:01821Turnover on downs0–19
TENQ2 4:161071Touchdown7–19
GBQ2 0:37320End of half7–19
TENQ3 15:00566Touchdown14–19
GBQ3 12:01366Touchdown14–26
TENQ3 10:2733Punt14–26
GBQ3 9:231069Touchdown14–33
TENQ3 3:351041Turnover14–33
GBQ4 14:48415Turnover14–33
TENQ4 12:241054Turnover on downs14–33
GBQ4 8:28991Touchdown14–40
TENQ4 2:2533Punt14–40
GBQ4 1:4100End of half14–40

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill11/2412112
Logan Woodside0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry23984.30
Ryan Tannehill35518.31
Darrynton Evans133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown48430
Jonnu Smith37301
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine11190
Cameron Batson11120
Anthony Firkser12110
Jeremy McNichols1160
Kalif Raymond0100
Corey Davis0200
Darrynton Evans0200

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers21/2523141

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
AJ Dillon211245.92
Aaron Jones10949.40
Aaron Rodgers3196.30
Tim Boyle3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams11121423
Equanimeous St. Brown11211
Robert Tonyan12170
Aaron Jones23140
Allen Lazard22140
Dominique Dafney11130
Tavon Austin2250
AJ Dillon1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.9%

Expected total

49.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.81