Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
37
Model margin
-2.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play-0.104
- 44.8%Success rate40.4%
- +0.182EPA / dropback-0.056
- -0.030EPA / rush-0.175
- 11.7%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.37CPOE+0.11
- 37.6%Third-down rate38.0%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 2.38Points / drive1.35
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54 points. TEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 13/19 | 202 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 6 | 73 | 12.2 | 1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 2 | 2 | 67 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 2 | 2 | 35 | 1 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 26/34 | 260 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Will Levis | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 7 | 73 | 1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
6.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.11
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.85