2016 · Week 10

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

25·47

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

48.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapTitans
  • +0.127EPA / play+0.037
  • 45.9%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.243EPA / dropback+0.103
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.049
  • 8.9%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +2.71CPOE+1.12
  • 47.4%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.72
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 54 points. TEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3GB @ TEN30–14GB
2022 · W11TEN @ GB27–17TEN
2020 · W16TEN @ GB14–40GB
2012 · W16TEN @ GB7–55GB
2008 · W9GB @ TEN16–19TEN
2004 · W5TEN @ GB48–27TEN
2001 · W14GB @ TEN20–26TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–TEN
GBQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:28175Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 13:17617Punt0–7
TENQ1 10:24685Touchdown0–14
GBQ1 6:583-6Punt0–14
TENQ1 5:25971Touchdown0–21
GBQ1 0:081075Touchdown7–21
TENQ2 10:49475Touchdown7–28
GBQ2 8:45984Field goal10–28
TENQ2 3:55419Punt10–28
TENQ2 2:22312Touchdown10–35
GBQ2 1:55675Touchdown16–35
TENQ2 0:43514Turnover on downs16–35
GBQ2 0:1027Turnover16–35
TENQ3 15:0039Punt16–35
GBQ3 13:051078Touchdown22–35
TENQ3 8:53540Touchdown22–41
GBQ3 6:271146Field goal25–41
TENQ3 0:573-6Punt25–41
GBQ4 13:34518Turnover on downs25–41
TENQ4 12:00411Field goal25–44
GBQ4 9:563-9Turnover25–44
TENQ4 8:55844Field goal25–47
GBQ4 4:5253Punt25–47
TENQ4 3:323-2Punt25–47
GBQ4 0:5848Turnover on downs25–47
TENQ4 0:3500End of half25–47

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers31/5137122
Brett Hundley1/4800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks7334.70
Aaron Rodgers3279.01
Ty Montgomery393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams691560
Jordy Nelson12181261
Randall Cobb48310
Richard Rodgers47270
Geronimo Allison12170
James Starks34111
Ty Montgomery22110
Justin Perillo0100
Jeff Janis0300
Trevor Davis0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota19/2629540
DeMarco Murray1/11010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray171237.21
Derrick Henry9313.40
Marcus Mariota500.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker9111241
Tajae Sharpe34681
Rishard Matthews35631
DeMarco Murray23330
Anthony Fasano1191
Kendall Wright2381

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.8%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.48
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.26