Closing spread
GB -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.127EPA / play+0.037
- 45.9%Success rate45.5%
- +0.243EPA / dropback+0.103
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.049
- 8.9%Explosive rate10.3%
- +2.71CPOE+1.12
- 47.4%Third-down rate45.6%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
- 2.39Points / drive1.72
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54 points. TEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 31/51 | 371 | 2 | 2 |
| Brett Hundley | 1/4 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 6 | 9 | 156 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 12 | 18 | 126 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| James Starks | 3 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Justin Perillo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Janis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 19/26 | 295 | 4 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1/1 | 10 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 17 | 123 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 9 | 11 | 124 | 1 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 3 | 4 | 68 | 1 |
| Rishard Matthews | 3 | 5 | 63 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.48
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.26