Closing spread
GB -3
Total
44
Model margin
+4.6est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.012EPA / play+0.110
- 41.5%Success rate46.2%
- +0.035EPA / dropback+0.241
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.085
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.4%
- 34.6%Third-down rate46.7%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate66.5%
- 1.47Points / drive2.02
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.076EPA / play allowed+0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54 points. GB are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 15/26 | 206 | 2 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 1/1 | 26 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 27 | 148 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Steve McNair | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Drew Bennett | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 24/44 | 338 | 2 | 3 |
| Craig Nall | 7/8 | 64 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
47.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.66
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.60