Closing spread
GB -10.5
Total
44
Model margin
+5.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play+0.102
- 38.0%Success rate46.3%
- -0.054EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- -2.87CPOE+5.43
- 38.2%Third-down rate42.8%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate69.8%
- 1.29Points / drive2.11
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54 points. GB are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 13/30 | 140 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jamie Harper | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 2 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| Damian Williams | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Michael Preston | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Taylor Thompson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/38 | 342 | 3 | 0 |
| Graham Harrell | 1/2 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 20 | 80 | 4.0 | 2 |
| DuJuan Harris | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Graham Harrell | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 7 | 10 | 100 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 5 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 5 | 62 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 7 | 9 | 45 | 1 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| D.J. Williams | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Ryan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.85