2012 · Week 16

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

7·55

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 24°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

GB -10.5

Total

44

Model margin

+5.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapPackers
  • -0.093EPA / play+0.102
  • 38.0%Success rate46.3%
  • -0.054EPA / dropback+0.222
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -2.87CPOE+5.43
  • 38.2%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 55.5%Red-zone TD rate69.8%
  • 1.29Points / drive2.11
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 54 points. GB are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3GB @ TEN30–14GB
2022 · W11TEN @ GB27–17TEN
2020 · W16TEN @ GB14–40GB
2016 · W10GB @ TEN25–47TEN
2008 · W9GB @ TEN16–19TEN
2004 · W5TEN @ GB48–27TEN
2001 · W14GB @ TEN20–26TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–GB
TENQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:24517Punt0–0
TENQ1 10:4737Punt0–0
GBQ1 9:42656Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 6:5437Punt0–7
GBQ1 5:22343Touchdown0–14
TENQ1 4:28325Turnover0–14
GBQ1 3:153-6Punt0–14
TENQ1 2:003-10Turnover0–14
GBQ1 0:3736Field goal0–17
TENQ2 14:36833Turnover on downs0–17
GBQ2 10:201239Field goal0–20
TENQ2 4:40628Punt0–20
GBQ2 1:54955Turnover on downs0–20
TENQ2 0:1227End of half0–20
GBQ3 15:00660Touchdown0–27
TENQ3 12:04612Punt0–27
GBQ3 8:38871Touchdown0–34
TENQ3 5:47615Punt0–34
GBQ3 3:31880Touchdown0–41
TENQ4 14:113-7Punt0–47
GBQ4 12:3517Touchdown0–48
TENQ4 12:3147Turnover on downs0–48
GBQ4 11:10833Touchdown0–55
TENQ4 6:2534Punt0–55
GBQ4 4:4332Punt0–55
TENQ4 2:51653Touchdown7–55
GBQ4 1:3900End of half7–55

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Locker13/3014012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jake Locker4328.00
Chris Johnson11282.50
Jamie Harper6193.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt26411
Damian Williams35390
Michael Preston23170
Nate Washington26150
Chris Johnson24130
Taylor Thompson1280
Craig Stevens1270
Lavelle Hawkins0200

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers27/3834230
Graham Harrell1/2900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant20804.02
DuJuan Harris8293.61
Aaron Rodgers4112.81
Graham Harrell3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones7101001
Jermichael Finley58700
Randall Cobb35621
Greg Jennings79451
Ryan Grant12340
D.J. Williams33200
Ryan Taylor11110
Donald Driver0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.60%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.5%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+5.85