Closing spread
TEN -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+0.8est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play-0.003
- 43.8%Success rate41.7%
- +0.134EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.044
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.0%
- +4.24CPOE-2.44
- 44.1%Third-down rate36.7%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.94Points / drive1.83
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 54 points. TEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/41 | 314 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 18/37 | 180 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 24 | 89 | 3.7 | 1 |
| LenDale White | 8 | 77 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+0.83