Closing spread
ATL -4
Total
41
Model margin
+1.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play-0.062
- 39.3%Success rate39.3%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.193
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- 34.4%Third-down rate40.9%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate42.1%
- 1.05Points / drive1.45
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.039EPA / play allowed+0.060
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 46.3 points. ATL are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 57 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 8:21 | 3 | 43 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| ATL | Q1 7:02 | 9 | 61 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| BUF | Q1 2:18 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 7–10 |
| ATL | Q2 13:45 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 7–10 |
| BUF | Q2 11:04 | 7 | 62 | Punt | 7–10 |
| ATL | Q2 7:09 | 2 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 14–10 |
| BUF | Q2 6:23 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 14–10 |
| ATL | Q2 6:23 | 9 | 48 | Field goal | 14–13 |
| BUF | Q2 2:28 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–13 |
| ATL | Q2 1:36 | 4 | 51 | Turnover | 14–13 |
| BUF | Q2 0:30 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 14–13 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–13 |
| ATL | Q3 13:39 | 12 | 50 | Field goal | 14–16 |
| BUF | Q3 6:04 | 1 | 68 | Touchdown | 20–16 |
| ATL | Q3 5:39 | 7 | 94 | Touchdown | 20–23 |
| BUF | Q3 1:40 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 20–23 |
| ATL | Q4 14:05 | 4 | 61 | Touchdown | 20–30 |
| BUF | Q4 11:56 | 13 | 83 | Field goal | 23–30 |
| ATL | Q4 3:55 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 23–30 |
| BUF | Q4 2:29 | 10 | 82 | Touchdown | 30–30 |
| ATL | Q4 0:48 | 5 | 30 | Field goal | 30–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Van Pelt | 17/31 | 208 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 16 | 130 | 8.1 | 2 |
| Eric Moulds | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peerless Price | 5 | 7 | 73 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 4 | 8 | 43 | 1 |
| Reggie Germany | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Sheldon Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 28/40 | 431 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Thomas | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 14 | 23 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Finneran | 5 | 7 | 93 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 3 | 7 | 92 | 1 |
| Terance Mathis | 6 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 2 | 2 | 54 | 1 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 1 | 1 | 43 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quentin McCord | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.55