Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
36
Model margin
+1.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play-0.082
- 40.6%Success rate39.5%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.141
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.0%
- 43.8%Third-down rate37.9%
- 51.9%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
- 1.65Points / drive1.44
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.022EPA / play allowed+0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 46.3 points. BUF are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 15/27 | 167 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 15 | 97 | 6.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 12 | 75 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 9 | 64 | 7.1 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 10/23 | 75 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 27 | 140 | 5.2 | 1 |
| J.P. Losman | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Shaud Williams | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.58