Closing spread
ATL -9
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play+0.041
- 38.0%Success rate43.4%
- -0.122EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.036
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- -1.89CPOE-1.75
- 26.3%Third-down rate42.8%
- 45.2%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
- 1.20Points / drive1.97
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 46.3 points. ATL are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Brohm | 17/29 | 146 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Evans | 5 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 4 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| James Hardy | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stupar | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Shawn Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 18/35 | 250 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerious Norwood | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 8 | 14 | 139 | 2 |
| Marty Booker | 4 | 4 | 57 | 1 |
| Michael Jenkins | 2 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.12
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.28