2009 · Week 16

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Brian Brohm

3·31

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -9

Total

40.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.125EPA / play+0.041
  • 38.0%Success rate43.4%
  • -0.122EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.129EPA / rush-0.036
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -1.89CPOE-1.75
  • 26.3%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 45.2%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.97
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. ATL are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6BUF @ ATL14–24ATL
2021 · W17ATL @ BUF15–29BUF
2017 · W4BUF @ ATL23–17BUF
2013 · W13ATL @ BUF34–31ATL
2005 · W3ATL @ BUF24–16ATL
2001 · W15BUF @ ATL30–33ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–ATL
BUFQ1 15:003-5Punt0–6
ATLQ1 12:55142Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 12:48312Punt0–7
ATLQ1 11:12831Punt0–7
BUFQ1 7:41520Punt0–7
ATLQ1 4:581267Field goal0–10
BUFQ2 14:24516Punt0–10
ATLQ2 12:09527Punt0–10
BUFQ2 10:05526Turnover0–10
ATLQ2 7:4342Punt0–10
BUFQ2 6:041047Punt0–10
ATLQ2 1:401038Missed field goal0–10
ATLQ3 15:00534Punt0–10
BUFQ3 12:2332Punt0–10
ATLQ3 10:50722Touchdown0–17
BUFQ3 7:333-3Opp touchdown0–24
BUFQ3 6:06853Field goal3–24
ATLQ3 1:58737Turnover on downs3–24
BUFQ4 13:4931Punt3–24
ATLQ4 11:421281Touchdown3–31
BUFQ4 4:2229Turnover3–31
ATLQ4 3:27411End of half3–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Brohm17/2914602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson13393.00
Marshawn Lynch331.00
Terrell Owens1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lee Evans57430
Terrell Owens49390
Fred Jackson23140
Marshawn Lynch12130
James Hardy1190
Jonathan Stupar0200
Shawn Nelson0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan18/3525030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerious Norwood13524.00
Eric Weems2178.50
Aaron Stecker393.00
Marty Booker177.00
Chris Redman210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White8141392
Marty Booker44571
Michael Jenkins28220
Tony Gonzalez22170
Jerious Norwood1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +92.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.12
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.28