Closing spread
ATL -8
Total
48
Model margin
+3.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play+0.047
- 39.0%Success rate45.0%
- -0.024EPA / dropback+0.185
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.152
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.7%
- -0.28CPOE+2.96
- 42.2%Third-down rate44.1%
- 52.1%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 1.47Points / drive2.02
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 46.3 points. ATL are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 12/20 | 182 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 20 | 76 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Clay | 5 | 7 | 112 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Kaelin Clay | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/42 | 242 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 9 | 77 | 8.6 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 18 | 58 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 4 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 2 | 6 | 12 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.93
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.67