2017 · Week 4

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

23·17

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -8

Total

48

Model margin

+3.7est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.071EPA / play+0.047
  • 39.0%Success rate45.0%
  • -0.024EPA / dropback+0.185
  • -0.135EPA / rush-0.152
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -0.28CPOE+2.96
  • 42.2%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 52.1%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
  • 1.47Points / drive2.02
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. ATL are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6BUF @ ATL14–24ATL
2021 · W17ATL @ BUF15–29BUF
2013 · W13ATL @ BUF34–31ATL
2009 · W16BUF @ ATL3–31ATL
2005 · W3ATL @ BUF24–16ATL
2001 · W15BUF @ ATL30–33ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00734Punt0–0
BUFQ1 11:331363Punt0–0
ATLQ1 5:021049Punt0–0
BUFQ1 0:094-1Punt0–0
ATLQ2 14:26749Field goal0–3
BUFQ2 10:31877Touchdown7–3
ATLQ2 6:51518Punt7–3
BUFQ2 4:2333Punt7–3
ATLQ2 3:20978Touchdown7–10
BUFQ2 0:1824End of half7–10
BUFQ3 15:0030Punt7–10
ATLQ3 13:11627Opp touchdown14–10
ATLQ3 10:55521Turnover14–10
BUFQ3 8:2018102Field goal17–10
ATLQ4 12:001165Touchdown17–17
BUFQ4 7:00437Field goal20–17
ATLQ4 4:443-7Turnover20–17
BUFQ4 3:273-2Field goal23–17
ATLQ4 3:061355Turnover on downs23–17
BUFQ4 0:4400End of half23–17

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor12/2018210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy20763.80
Tyrod Taylor7121.70
Patrick DiMarco1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Clay571120
LeSean McCoy33320
Zay Jones15180
Andre Holmes11100
Jordan Matthews22101
Kaelin Clay0200

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan24/4224212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman9778.60
Devonta Freeman18583.21
Matt Ryan188.00
Mohamed Sanu144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tevin Coleman46650
Austin Hooper57500
Julio Jones34300
Nick Williams34300
Levine Toilolo33210
Devonta Freeman22200
Justin Hardy26121
Mohamed Sanu1330
Taylor Gabriel0500

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.9%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.67